2023年全國(guó)碩士研究生考試考研英語(yǔ)一試題真題（含答案詳解+作文范文）_第1頁(yè)
已閱讀1頁(yè)，還剩41頁(yè)未讀， 繼續(xù)免費(fèi)閱讀

下載本文檔

版權(quán)說(shuō)明：本文檔由用戶提供并上傳，收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方，若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán)，請(qǐng)進(jìn)行舉報(bào)或認(rèn)領(lǐng)

文檔簡(jiǎn)介

1、MMChinaAutos&SharedMobilityDrivetoTurnaroundin20202019hasseentheweakestsalesftheChineseautomarketindecades.Howeverweexpectareplacementcycletokickinfrom2020faturnaroundwhichcouldbenefitJapaneseluxurybrsonupgradedem.Trough

2、valuationsleadustoraiseourIndustryViewtoAttractive.WealsoupgradeSAICtoOW.MganStanleydoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMganStanleyResearch.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcou

3、ldaffecttheobjectivityofMganStanleyResearch.InvestsshouldconsiderMganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.FanalystcertificationotherimptantdisclosuresrefertotheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendo

4、fthisrept.=AnalystsemployedbynonU.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRAmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofthemembermaynotbesubjecttoNASDNYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompanypublicappearancestradingsecuritiesheldbya

5、researchanalystaccount.September8201909:00PMGMTMMChinaAutos&SharedMobilityDrivetoTurnaroundin20202019hasseentheweakestsalesftheChineseautomarketindecades.Howeverweexpectareplacementcycletokickinfrom2020faturnaroundwhichc

6、ouldbenefitJapaneseluxurybrsonupgradedem.TroughvaluationsleadustoraiseourIndustryViewtoAttractive.WealsoupgradeSAICtoOW.Autosalessettoimprovein2020afterpo2019:WithlacklustermacroindicatswsethanexpectedautosalesYTD2019iss

7、ettobetheweakestyearfautosalesgrowthinChinasince1990welowerour2019PVsalesgrowthfecastfroma5%yoydeclinetoa78%decline.Howeverweexpectareplacementcycletokickinfrom2020notethisis~5yearssincethepreviousgovernmentstimuluspolic

8、ieswereintroducedinOctober2015.Weexpectthetohighendbrstobenefitfromthisreplacementcycledrivenbyconsumerupgradedem.AmongautoOEMsourfavitesegmentremainsluxuryJapanesebrswhereweexpecttoseecontinuedmarketsharegains.Weadjusto

9、ur2020ePVsalesgrowthfecastfrom3%to12%in2020efChinawhichisthehighestgrowthamongmajglobalmarketscomparedto3%inJapan1%inKea6%inUS2%inEurope.Marketpricedinweakexpectations:HsharelistedOEMshaveonlyseen~10%sharepricereturnsYTD

10、after~50%declinesin2018.Since2018ChineseautoOEMshaveunderperfmedtheHangSengIndexby35%alsounderperfmedmajUSEuropeanJapaneseOEMs.ManyofourOWratedstocksaretradingnearhisticaltroughvaluationstheindustryaveragePEisnowat1stard

11、deviationbelowitshisticalaverage.Webelievethecurrentsharepricesarenottakingintoconsiderationthepossibilityofimprovedautodemnextyear.WHAT’SCHANGEDSAICMotCp.Ltd.FromTatingEqualweightOverweightDongfengMotGroupPriceTargetHK$

12、8.00HK$10.00ChinaAutos&SharedMobilityIndustryViewInLineAttractivePossibleautostimulus:OnAugust272019ChinasStateCouncilissuedapolicypackagetopromoteconsumption.Ftheautosectiturgedlocalgovernmentstograduallyloosencancelexi

13、stinglicenseplaterestrictionsaccdingtothelocalsituation.ItalsourgedlocalgovernmentswithsufficientresourcestosupptthepurchaseofNEVs.Webelievethelocalgovernmentsmayimplementthesepoliciesin2020whichcouldsupptautodem.Outlook

14、f2H192020:Whilewenowexpect78%industrysalesvolumedeclinesf201912%salesvolumegrowthf2020fthesixmajHsharelistedOEMswecoverweexpect0.3%salesvolumedeclinesf20194.5%salesvolumegrowthin2020asweexpectthemajOEMstotakemarketsharef

15、romsmallerplayers.Weexpectanaverageof14%yoyprofitdeclinefthe6OEMsf2019Ebut8%profitgrowthf2020EwithourupdatedassumptionsfDongfeng.Riskstoourratings:Ifpressureonthemacroeconomylingersin2020weseedownsiderisktoourfecasts.How

16、everevenifthedownturnintheautomarketcontinueswestillexpectluxuryJapanesebrstoberesilientaswasthecasein201819.Recommendations:WeremainOWonBrillianceBAICgiventheirluxurybrexposureonDongfengGACftheirJapanesebrexposure.Weals

17、oupgradeSAICtoOWfromEWwithanunchangedPTonvaluation.WearebearishondomesticbrswhichweexpecttolosesharefromJVbrs.WeremainEWonGWMUWonGeelyasGeelytradesat14x2019EPEmuchhigherthanGWMs10x.WeraiseourIndustryViewtoAttractivefromI

溫馨提示

  • 1. 本站所有資源如無(wú)特殊說(shuō)明，都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請(qǐng)下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
  • 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等，如果需要附件，請(qǐng)聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶所有。
  • 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙，網(wǎng)頁(yè)內(nèi)容里面會(huì)有圖紙預(yù)覽，若沒(méi)有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒(méi)有圖紙。
  • 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
  • 5. 眾賞文庫(kù)僅提供信息存儲(chǔ)空間，僅對(duì)用戶上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護(hù)處理，對(duì)用戶上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯，并不能對(duì)任何下載內(nèi)容負(fù)責(zé)。
  • 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容，請(qǐng)與我們聯(lián)系，我們立即糾正。
  • 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準(zhǔn)確性、安全性和完整性, 同時(shí)也不承擔(dān)用戶因使用這些下載資源對(duì)自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。

評(píng)論

0/150

提交評(píng)論