inflation通脹

1、Thecentralprobleminthestockmarketisthatthereturnoncapitalhasn’trisenwithinflation.Itseemstobestuckat12percent.1Itisnolongerasecretthatstockslikebondsdopolyinaninflationaryenvironment.Wehavebeeninsuchanenvironmentfmostoft

2、hepastdecadeithasindeedbeenatimeoftroublesfstocks.Butthereasonsfthestockmarketsproblemsinthisperiodarestillimperfectlyunderstood.股票市場(chǎng)的資本回報(bào)率沒(méi)有隨著通貨膨脹而上升，而似乎是停滯在了12%股票在通貨膨脹環(huán)境下像債券一樣表現(xiàn)不佳，這已經(jīng)不是個(gè)秘密。在過(guò)去10年里，我們一直處于這種通脹環(huán)境里。確實(shí)，這是一個(gè)

3、股票遇到麻煩的時(shí)期。但是，在這段時(shí)間里造成股票市場(chǎng)難題的原因仍然沒(méi)有被人們完全理解。2Thereisnomysteryatallabouttheproblemsofbondholdersinaneraofinflation.Whenthevalueofthedollardeteriatesmonthaftermonthasecuritywithincomeprincipalpaymentsdenominatedinthosedollar

4、sisntgoingtobeabigwinner.YouhardlyneedaPh.D.ineconomicstofigurethatoneout.在通脹時(shí)期債券持有者所遇到的問(wèn)題一點(diǎn)也不神秘。當(dāng)美元月復(fù)一月地貶值，一種本金和收入都用美元支付的證券不會(huì)是個(gè)大贏家。fixedwhilethereturnonanequityinvestment(thecompanysearnings)canvarysubstantiallyfromoney

5、eartoanother.Trueenough.Butanyonewhoexaminestheaggregatereturnsthathavebeenearnedbycompaniesduringthepostwaryearswilldiscoversomethingextradinary:thereturnsonequityhaveinfactnotvariedmuchatall.我知道我的主張對(duì)很多投資者來(lái)說(shuō)顯得古怪。他們馬上就觀察

6、到債券的回報(bào)（利息）是固定的，而股票投資的回報(bào)（盈利）會(huì)每年變化極大。這確實(shí)是事實(shí)。但是，任何研究戰(zhàn)后公司總體回報(bào)的人都會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)一個(gè)現(xiàn)象：資本回報(bào)率實(shí)際上并沒(méi)有變化那么多。A.Thecouponissticky停滯的息票6Inthefirsttenyearsafterthewarthedecadeendingin1955theDowJonesindustrialshadanaverageannualreturnonyearendequit

7、yof12.8percent.Intheseconddecadethefigurewas10.1percent.Inthethirddecadeitwas10.9percent.DatafalargeruniversetheFTUNE500(whosehistygoesbackonlytothe1950s)indicatesomewhatsimilarresults:11.2percentinthedecadeendingin19651