城市軌道交通客流特征及規(guī)律研究

1、城市軌道交通客流特征及規(guī)律研究摘 要我國城市軌道交通已進入高速發(fā)展時期，作為緩解城市交通擁堵問題的重要手段，城市軌道交通越來越受到各政府部門的重視。在城市軌道交通領域內(nèi)，客流是城市軌道交通規(guī)劃、設計、建設、運營等各個環(huán)節(jié)的基本依據(jù)，客流預測是決定軌道交通線網(wǎng)規(guī)劃、工程項目建設時序、軌道交通系統(tǒng)規(guī)模和系統(tǒng)運營效益等軌道交通重大決策問題的基礎，客流預測的合理性對城市軌道交通規(guī)劃、建設和運營都有著十分重要的作用。然而，從國內(nèi)已運營城市軌道交通

2、的實際情況看，普遍存在實際客流與預測客流差異較大，線路客流嚴重不均衡的局面。有的線路的實際客流提前達到或遠遠超過預測客流，有的卻僅是預測客流的 15-20%，這些都給實際運營造成了很大困難。因此，非常有必要在軌道交通開通運營后，對實際客流進行細致分析，找出實際客流與預測結果偏差較大的原因，并為實際工作提供改進建議。通過分析挖掘客流的發(fā)展規(guī)律及特征，對城市軌道交通的健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重大意義。關鍵詞：城市軌道交通，客流，特征，規(guī)律ABST

3、RACTUrban rail transit of our county has entered a period of rapid development as an important means to alleviate urban traffic congestion problems, urban rail transit more and more the attention of various government de

4、partments. Within the field of urban rail transit, the passenger is the fundamental basis of all aspects of the urban rail transportation planning, design, construction, operation, passenger flow forecast is to determine

5、 the rail transit network planning, construction projects and the timing, size of the rail transit system and operational efficiency major rail transportation decision-making problems based on reasonable passenger foreca

6、sts have a very important role in urban rail transit planning, construction and operation. However, from the domestic operations of the actual situation of urban rail transit, the prevalence of actual passenger flow fore

7、cast passenger route passenger serious imbalance situation. Some lines of the passenger in advance is far more than the forecast passenger traffic, but some only 15-20% of the forecast passenger, which gave the actual op

8、eration caused great difficulties. Therefore, it is necessary in the ..目錄1.前言.............................................................................................................................42．城市軌道交通客流概述.....

9、.....................................................................................42.1 城市軌道交通客流的內(nèi)涵..............................................................................42.2 城市軌道交通客流的影響因素.......................

10、...............................................52.3 客流不確定性分析..........................................................................................73.城市軌道交通客流特征.........................................................

11、....................................83.1 城市軌道交通客流時間特征..........................................................................83.1.1 全年各月客流變化特征.......................................................................83.1.

12、2 一周內(nèi)各日客流特征...........................................................................93.1.3 一日內(nèi)小時客流特征..........................................................................93.2 城市軌道交通客流空間特征...........................

13、.............................................103.2.1 方向上的客流分布特征.....................................................................103.2.2 斷面上的客流特征........................................................................

14、.....103.3 城市軌道交通客流構成特征........................................................................113.3.1 城市軌道交通客流構成.....................................................................113.3.2 不同客流構成線路的客流特性.................

15、........................................113.4 城市軌道交通網(wǎng)絡化客流特征....................................................................114.城市軌道交通客流的一般規(guī)律............................................................................

16、...124.1 城市軌道交通客流成長規(guī)律........................................................................124.1.1 東京.....................................................................................................124.1.2 首爾......

17、...............................................................................................134.1.3 上海.....................................................................................................134.1.4 廣州....

18、.................................................................................................144.2 小結................................................................................................................144

19、.2.1 客流成長期的劃分.............................................................................144.2.2 客流發(fā)展趨勢曲線形式.....................................................................155.結束語....................................