2019快遞行業(yè)策略報(bào)告競(jìng)爭(zhēng)下半場(chǎng)，關(guān)注成本及現(xiàn)金流

1、內(nèi)容目錄內(nèi)容目錄1.2018快遞板塊回顧快遞板塊回顧..................................................................................................................................................................................................

2、............................................................................................41.1.行業(yè)發(fā)展進(jìn)入陣痛期..................................................................................................................

3、..............41.2.量：新型電商平臺(tái)帶來(lái)行業(yè)新期待....................................................................................................41.3價(jià)：價(jià)格持續(xù)承壓，或?qū)⑦M(jìn)入競(jìng)爭(zhēng)高潮.................................................................

4、..........................71.4競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局：龍頭份額繼續(xù)提升.............................................................................................................82.2019關(guān)注價(jià)格戰(zhàn)，現(xiàn)金流、成關(guān)注價(jià)格戰(zhàn)，現(xiàn)金流、成本將成為核心優(yōu)勢(shì)將成為核心優(yōu)勢(shì)........................

5、..............................................................................................................................................82.1.價(jià)格戰(zhàn)致行業(yè)利潤(rùn)收窄...............................................................

6、............................................................82.2管理制度將是價(jià)格戰(zhàn)主要發(fā)起方式...................................................................................................102.3價(jià)格戰(zhàn)對(duì)量、成本及現(xiàn)金流具有重要影響...................

7、...................................................................112.4現(xiàn)金流抬升公司存活能力，成本優(yōu)勢(shì)主導(dǎo)價(jià)格戰(zhàn)........................................................................153.投資策略投資策略...........................................

8、............................................................................................................................................................................................................................

9、.........................................................174.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示.......................................................................................................................................................

10、.........................................................................................................................................................................17圖表目錄圖表目錄圖1：快遞板塊對(duì)比上證綜指2018走勢(shì)......................

11、....................................................................................4圖2：行業(yè)快遞業(yè)務(wù)量增速...........................................................................................................................

12、..........4圖3：中東西部地區(qū)業(yè)務(wù)占比................................................................................................................................5圖4：同城、異地、國(guó)際業(yè)務(wù)量占比...................................................

13、................................................................5圖5：拼多多訂單量占快遞行業(yè)比率...................................................................................................................5圖6：各省2017人均年使用快遞頻率（次年）.

14、...........................................................................................6圖7：實(shí)物網(wǎng)購(gòu)規(guī)模增速.....................................................................................................................

15、....................6圖8：網(wǎng)上零售占比（%）...............................................................................................................................................6圖9：快遞單件價(jià)格走勢(shì)................................

16、.........................................................................................................7圖10：“三通一達(dá)”單件面單中轉(zhuǎn)下降幅度..............................................................................................

17、........7圖11：快遞行業(yè)CR8.....................................................................................................................8圖12：快遞行業(yè)CR4.......................................................................

18、..............................................8圖13：規(guī)模以上快遞單件收入及同比增速（12個(gè)月滾動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)）............................................................9圖14：?jiǎn)渭杀荆ú缓少M(fèi)）.....................................................................

19、......................................................11圖15：?jiǎn)渭?......................................................................................................................................................11圖16

20、：資本開支到業(yè)務(wù)量傳導(dǎo)圖.......................................................................................................................12圖17：資本開支占營(yíng)收比...........................................................................

21、.........................................................12圖18：?jiǎn)渭ㄔ?..................................................................................................................................13圖19：歸母凈利潤(rùn)經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金凈流

22、入............................................................................................................13圖20：購(gòu)買固定資產(chǎn)、無(wú)形資產(chǎn)、其他長(zhǎng)期資產(chǎn)現(xiàn)金流出營(yíng)收..........................................................14圖21：固定資產(chǎn)原值業(yè)務(wù)量........

23、......................................................................................................................14圖22：在手資金（現(xiàn)金理財(cái)，億元）...................................................................................

24、........................16圖23：資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率..................................................................................................................................................16表1：網(wǎng)購(gòu)人數(shù)變化............................

25、.......................................................................................................................7表2：行業(yè)單價(jià)變化...........................................................................................

26、........................................................9表3：快遞收入成本拆分.......................................................................................................................................10表4：通達(dá)系現(xiàn)金流狀況....

27、...................................................................................................................................13表5：價(jià)格戰(zhàn)對(duì)現(xiàn)金流影響測(cè)算.........................................................................

28、................................................15規(guī)模以上快遞業(yè)務(wù)量:當(dāng)月值(億件)50454035302520151050同比（%）100%80%60%40%20%0%20%40%1.2018快遞板塊回顧1.1.行業(yè)發(fā)展進(jìn)入陣痛期2018年截止11月底，快遞板塊自年初開始跌幅達(dá)到32.3%，上證綜指跌幅為22.2%，相對(duì)收益跑輸大盤。上半年自2月份到6月份，快遞板塊股價(jià)相對(duì)穩(wěn)定，具有較

29、明顯的相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)；下半年受經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)等因素影響大盤下跌，快遞板塊下跌22%，上證綜指下跌8.5%。上半年快遞板塊相對(duì)收益來(lái)自于拼多多等電商發(fā)展帶來(lái)的超預(yù)期的快遞業(yè)務(wù)量增速；下半年股價(jià)跌幅較大的原因主要系業(yè)務(wù)量增速持續(xù)回落，價(jià)格戰(zhàn)依舊嚴(yán)峻，各家持續(xù)加速資本開支，整個(gè)快遞生態(tài)惡劣導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)對(duì)短期行業(yè)利潤(rùn)及快遞公司生存狀況產(chǎn)生擔(dān)憂。圖1：快遞板塊對(duì)比上證綜指：快遞板塊對(duì)比上證綜指2018走勢(shì)走勢(shì)45.000040.000035.000030

30、.000025.000020.000010.500010.00009.50009.00008.50008.00007.50007.00006.50006.0000資料來(lái)源：wind，快遞板塊上證綜指1.2.量：新型電商平臺(tái)帶來(lái)行業(yè)新期待量：新型電商平臺(tái)帶來(lái)行業(yè)新期待一季度業(yè)務(wù)量增速稍有回升，下半年增速略有回落：2018年110月份行業(yè)快遞業(yè)務(wù)量達(dá)到394億件，同比增加26.6%，去年同期同比增速為29.1%，下降2.5%。分月份來(lái)看，上

31、半年行業(yè)增速較快，其中一季度業(yè)務(wù)量同比增速達(dá)到31%，環(huán)比出現(xiàn)一定程度回升，隨后二三季度相較一季度同比增速出現(xiàn)一定程度的回調(diào)。圖2：行業(yè)快遞業(yè)務(wù)量增速：行業(yè)快遞業(yè)務(wù)量增速資料來(lái)源：wind，20170707201708072017090720171007201711072017120720180107201802072018030720180407201805072018060720180707201808072018090720181