房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)2019年投資策略九阡寒意老，七陌柳色新

1、目錄九阡寒意老九阡寒意老七陌七陌柳色新色新..............................................................................................................................................................................51.地產(chǎn)板塊：正是地產(chǎn)板塊：正是種柳迎春時(shí)柳迎春

2、時(shí)..................................................................................................................................................................52.銷售：整體下銷售：整體下行分化緩和化緩和明年看好一線及強(qiáng)二線明年看好一線及強(qiáng)二線..............

3、............................................................................................................63.投資：建安接力投資：建安接力土地購(gòu)置地購(gòu)置投資緩慢下行至投資緩慢下行至2.1%......................................................................

4、............................................93.1土地購(gòu)置拉動(dòng)房地產(chǎn)投資，建安投資拉低投資2.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)................................................93.2“此起彼伏”背后的原因.............................................................................103.3

5、明年房地產(chǎn)投資增速預(yù)計(jì)為2.1%..............................................................................................................................124.土地：土地市場(chǎng)土地：土地市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)繼續(xù)降溫計(jì)繼續(xù)降溫.................................................

6、...........................................................................................................125.政策：滿園花開政策：滿園花開雖難求難求積雪厚處先逢春積雪厚處先逢春............................................................................

7、..............................................................145.1一二線調(diào)控必要性減弱...............................................................................145.2放松調(diào)控動(dòng)機(jī)邊際增強(qiáng).................................................

8、..............................155.3調(diào)控會(huì)徹底轉(zhuǎn)向嗎？.................................................................................165.4房產(chǎn)稅：不管出于財(cái)政目的還是調(diào)控目的，短期內(nèi)大概率不會(huì)出臺(tái).........................................175.5對(duì)預(yù)售制度改革的思考.....

9、..........................................................................195.6明年政策判斷：小幅局部默許積雪厚處先逢春........................................................206.公司：穿越周期公司：穿越周期真龍頭龍頭潛力區(qū)域?qū)ず隈R潛力區(qū)域?qū)ず隈R............................

10、..............................................................................................................206.1快周轉(zhuǎn)：本質(zhì)是融資擴(kuò)表手段下行周期中有待觀察......................................................216.1.1快的是拿地到銷售，通過提升杠桿而非周轉(zhuǎn)率來提

11、高ROE.............................................................................216.1.2上行期造就高增速下行期效果有待觀察..........................................................226.2重申看好布局一二線城市房企.......................................

12、..................................227.投資建議：地產(chǎn)投資建議：地產(chǎn)股值得看好值得看好正是種柳迎春時(shí)正是種柳迎春時(shí)..................................................................................................................................237.1萬科A.......

13、.................................................................................................................................................................237.1.1高增長(zhǎng)高ROE穩(wěn)健現(xiàn)金流，新時(shí)代延續(xù)有質(zhì)量的增長(zhǎng)............................

14、................237.1.2創(chuàng)新先行者，引領(lǐng)行業(yè)詩(shī)與遠(yuǎn)方.................................................................247.1.3已售未結(jié)算資源充足，無懼短期銷售下行.........................................................267.2保利地產(chǎn)...........................

15、................................................................267.2.1布局集中一二線貨值豐富糧草先行..............................................................267.2.2激勵(lì)整合迎破局，兵強(qiáng)馬壯再出發(fā)..................................................

16、.............277.2.3竣工均價(jià)雙提升加速推動(dòng)業(yè)績(jī)釋放..............................................................287.2.4三季度少數(shù)股東損益影響將逐漸消除今明兩年業(yè)績(jī)確定性強(qiáng)........................................297.3濱江集團(tuán).........................................

17、..................................................307.3.1坐擁杭州地利，短期業(yè)績(jī)與未來潛力俱佳.........................................................307.3.2積極補(bǔ)充土地貨值充足支撐銷售高增............................................................327.3

18、.3業(yè)績(jī)邊際改善，拿地銷售醞釀下一個(gè)天亮.........................................................327.4藍(lán)光發(fā)展...........................................................................................337.4.1控巴蜀以謀天下，地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)可攻退可守..................

19、.......................................337.4.2開工竣工雙修復(fù)毛利率有望繼續(xù)提升............................................................357.4.3三季度銷售加速可結(jié)算資源質(zhì)高量足............................................................36東興證券深度報(bào)告東興證券深

20、度報(bào)告房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)2019年投資策略：九阡寒意老七陌柳色新DONGXINGSECURITIES圖15：一二線城市供銷比（截至一二線城市供銷比（截至2018年10月）月）..............................................................................................................................15圖16：70城新建

21、商品住宅價(jià)格指數(shù)城新建商品住宅價(jià)格指數(shù)同比..............................................................................................................................................15圖17：商業(yè)性房地產(chǎn)貸款余額及增速商業(yè)性房地產(chǎn)貸款余額及增速.........................

22、...........................................................................................................................15圖18：70城新建商品住宅價(jià)格指數(shù)城新建商品住宅價(jià)格指數(shù)同比.................................................................

23、.............................................................................15圖19：全國(guó)稅收收入增速全國(guó)稅收收入增速單位單位：%...................................................................................................................

24、....16圖20：全國(guó)公共財(cái)政收入增速全國(guó)公共財(cái)政收入增速單位單位：%.................................................................................................................16圖21:貨幣政策周期與商品房銷售面積增速幣政策周期與商品房銷售面積增速單位單位：%............................

25、.................................................................17圖22:一般法律立法流程及時(shí)間般法律立法流程及時(shí)間................................................................................................................................

26、..............................19圖23:預(yù)售變現(xiàn)售后的項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流分布售變現(xiàn)售后的項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)金流分布..................................................................................................................................................19圖24:TOP15

27、房企銷房企銷售增速增速....................................................................................................................................................................21圖25:代表性房企總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率變化情況表性房企總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率變化情況..........

28、....................................................................................................................................22圖26：萬科銷售面積及增速萬科銷售面積及增速................................................................

29、....................................................................................................23圖27：萬科銷售額與市場(chǎng)份額萬科銷售額與市場(chǎng)份額..............................................................................................

30、..................................................................23圖28：ROE（行業(yè)VS.萬科）萬科）單位單位：%.................................................................................................................24圖29：萬科銷售額與市場(chǎng)

31、份額萬科銷售額與市場(chǎng)份額................................................................................................................................................................24圖30：可售面積能級(jí)分布可售面積能級(jí)分布..........................

32、..............................................................................................................................................27圖31：土地儲(chǔ)備能級(jí)分布土地儲(chǔ)備能級(jí)分布........................................................

33、................................................................................................................27圖32：銷售額及同比增速銷售額及同比增速......................................................................................

34、..................................................................................27圖33：銷售面積及同比增速銷售面積及同比增速..................................................................................................................

35、..................................................27圖34：保利置業(yè)股權(quán)架構(gòu)：收購(gòu)前保利置業(yè)股權(quán)架構(gòu)：收購(gòu)前............................................................................................................................................

36、............28圖35：保利置業(yè)股權(quán)架構(gòu)：收購(gòu)后保利置業(yè)股權(quán)架構(gòu)：收購(gòu)后........................................................................................................................................................28圖36:杭州供銷比與房?jī)r(jià)漲幅州供銷比與房?jī)r(jià)漲幅.

37、.................................................................................................................................................................30圖37:杭州待開發(fā)土地面積與去化周期州待開發(fā)土地面積與去化周期..........................

38、........................................................................................................................31圖38：公司營(yíng)業(yè)收入與杭州收入占比公司營(yíng)業(yè)收入與杭州收入占比....................................................................

39、................................................................................31圖39：未結(jié)算貨值分布（未計(jì)入舊改項(xiàng)目和無股未結(jié)算貨值分布（未計(jì)入舊改項(xiàng)目和無股權(quán)代建項(xiàng)目）代建項(xiàng)目）.......................................................................................

40、.................31圖40：可比公司凈負(fù)債率及變化可比公司凈負(fù)債率及變化............................................................................................................................................................32圖41：可比公司扣除預(yù)收賬款后資產(chǎn)

41、負(fù)債率及變化可比公司扣除預(yù)收賬款后資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率及變化單位單位：%...........................................................................................................32圖42：藍(lán)光發(fā)展銷售面積及增速藍(lán)光發(fā)展銷售面積及增速......................................................

42、......................................................................................................34圖43：藍(lán)光發(fā)展銷售金額及增速藍(lán)光發(fā)展銷售金額及增速..........................................................................................

43、..................................................................34圖44:藍(lán)光發(fā)展業(yè)務(wù)布局光發(fā)展業(yè)務(wù)布局.....................................................................................................................................

44、.....................................34圖45：未結(jié)算貨值分布未結(jié)算貨值分布...................................................................................................................................................................

45、.........35圖46：土地儲(chǔ)備面積及成都占比土地儲(chǔ)備面積及成都占比............................................................................................................................................................35圖47：開工計(jì)劃及完成率開工計(jì)劃及完成率.....

46、...................................................................................................................................................................35圖48：竣工計(jì)劃及完成率竣工計(jì)劃及完成率...................................