電網(wǎng)負荷預測分析與管理于一體的研究和實踐.pdf

1、山東大學碩士學位論文電網(wǎng)負荷預測分析與管理于一體的研究和實踐姓名：張健申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：電氣工程指導教師：韓學山20060915山東人學壩I論文ABSTRACTLoadforecastisoneoftheimportanLworkforelectricpowerdispatching，tradingandplanninginelectricpowercompanyLoadforecastingaccuratelywhichisth

2、efoundationofexactoperationschedulingtokeepthepowergridoperatedinthesecureandreliablestateLoadforecastingisalsothekeyofmakingtradingbetweengenerationunits，whichcanguaranteethewell—balancedoperationofelectricitymarketAtth

3、esametime，itisthebasisfordemandsidemanagementandelectricpowerplanningWiththedevelopmentandreconstructureinthepowerindustry，itisurgenttoimprovetheloadforecastingaccuracyAccordingtothecurrent10adforecastingmodelsinapplicat

4、ion，theconceptofstandardizationforload—relatedfactors，baddatat—testingandperiodicalloadforecastingisintroduced，whichimprovestheloadforecastingresultIntegratedforecastingmodelandalgorithm，whichcombinesthevirtueofeachmodel

5、，aredesignedtoachievemoreaccurateforecastingresultinthiSthesis，theaccuracyofintegratedmodelismoresteady—goingthanthosebasicsinglemodelsItoptimizesthoseforecastingresultsofseveralbasicmodelsaccordingtotheideaofSimulativeF

6、orecastingconsideringtheimpactsofload—relatedfactors，SOtheintegratedmodelcangetamuchbetterandsteadyaccuracythanmostbasicforecastingmodelsThenovelideaofintegrationofpowergridloadforecast，analysisandmanagementisproposedint

7、histhesis，fortheexistingsimpleandinefficientfunctionofioadforecastsoftwareapplledinchinaViamutualrevisionandcomprehensiveloadcharacteristiCanalysiSfromtheprovincialandregionaldispatchingunits，itcanmakeupthedeficiencyoflo