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1、<p> Preliminary results for the first round of the State Joint Procurement for Drugs Linked with Specific Volume ("Joint Procurement") have been released, which showed strong substitution effect of gener
2、ic drugs on original ones and larger-than-expected price cut. Preliminary results of Joint Procurement in 11 cities were released on Dec. 7th; 25 drugs succeeded in attracting preliminary candidate winning bidders while
3、6 failed. The results showed a strong substitution effect of generic drugs on ori</p><p> Table-1: Preliminary Results of Joint Procurement</p><p> Atorvastatin Calcium Tablets20mg*7 tablets
4、Jialin Pharmaceutical6.6023.24-71.60%2,20917%Sinopharm</p><p> Rosuvastatin Calcium Tablets10mg*28 tabletsJingxin Pharmaceutical21.8060.50-63.97%1,1037%Shanghai Pharma</p><p> Cl
5、opidogrel Hydrogen Sulphate75mg*7 tabletsSalubris Pharmaceutical22.2660.33-63.10%2,39530%Shanghai Pharma Tablets</p><p> Irbesartan Tablets75mg*28 tabletsHuahai Pharmaceutical5.6614.90-62.01%3
6、651%Shanghai Pharma</p><p> Amlodipine Besylate Tablets5mg*28 tabletsJingxin Pharmaceutical4.164.60-9.57%7550%Shanghai Pharma</p><p> Entecavir Dispersible Tablets0.5mg*28 tabletsS
7、ino Biopharm17.36257.00-93.25%1,99644%Shanghai Pharma</p><p> Escitalopram Oxalate Tablets10mg*7 tabletsKelun Pharmaceutical30.9437.54-17.58%41610%Sinopharm</p><p> Paroxetine Hy
8、drochloride20mg*20 tabletsHuahai Pharmaceutical33.4040.57-17.67%21141%Sinopharm Tablets</p><p> Olanzapine Tablets10mg*7 tabletsHansoh Pharmaceutical67.5192.62-27.11%65360%Shanghai Pharma<
9、;/p><p> Cefuroxime Axetil Tablets0.25g*12 tabletsBrilliant Pharmaceutical6.1610.31-40.25%5553%Shanghai Pharma</p><p> Risperidone Tablets1mg*60 tabletsHuahai Pharmaceutical10.0212.68
10、-20.98%1187%Sinopharm</p><p> Gefitinib Tablets250mg*10 tabletsAstraZeneca547.002,280.00-76.01%42089%Shanghai Pharma</p><p> Fosinopril Sodium Tablets10mg*14 tabletsBMS11.8037.
11、50-68.53%4583%Sinopharm</p><p> Irbesartan and Hydrochlorothiazide Tablets</p><p> ?。?50mg+12.5mg)</p><p> *14 tablets</p><p> Huahai Pharmaceutical15.2643.65
12、-65.04%2385%Shanghai Pharma</p><p> Lisinopril Tablets10mg*28 tabletsHuahai Pharmaceutical6.4523.93-73.05%236%Shanghai Pharma</p><p> Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate300mg*30 tablets
13、Brilliant Pharmaceutical17.72418.81-95.77%2414%Shanghai Pharma Tablets</p><p> Losartan Potassium Tablets50mg*14 tabletsHuahai Pharmaceutical14.7029.90-50.84%3447%Shanghai Pharma</p>&l
14、t;p> Enalapril Maleate Tablets10mg*16 tabletsYangtze River Pharmaceutical8.9315.50-42.39%1577%Sinopharm</p><p> Levetiracetam Tablets250mg*30 tabletsJingxin Pharmaceutical72.0089.46-19.52%
15、3280%Sinopharm</p><p> Imatinib Mesylate Tablets100mg*60 tabletsHansoh Pharmaceutical623.82843.00-26.00%70312%Sinopharm</p><p> Montelukast Sodium Tablets10mg*5 tabletsMinsheng Bin
16、jiang Pharmaceutical19.3831.78-39.02%5080%Sinopharm</p><p> Montmorillonite3g*15 bagsSimcere Pharmaceutical10.2011.00-7.27%414%Sinopharm</p><p> Pemetrexed for Injection500mg/bo
17、ttleSichuan Huiyu Pharmaceutical2,776.979,281.00-70.08%</p><p><b> 1,424</b></p><p> 0%Sinopharm</p><p> Pemetrexed for Injection100mg/bottleSichuan Huiyu Phar
18、maceutical810.002,417.00-66.49%0%Sinopharm</p><p> Flurbiprofen Axetil Injection5ml:50mg*5 bottlesBeijing Tide109.75310.75-64.68%962100%Shanghai Pharma</p><p> Dexmedetomidine Hyd
19、rochloride Injection</p><p> 2ml:0.2mg*4 bottlesYangtze River Pharmaceutical532.00748.00-28.88%7340%Sinopharm</p><p> Amoxicllin Capsules250mgCSPC PharmaAbortive Azithromvcin Tablets
20、250mgCSPC PharmaAbortive Azithromvcin Tablets500mgCSPC PharmaAbortive Tramadol Hydrochoride Tablet50mgCSPC PharmaAbortive Alfacalcidol Tablets0.25ugYaopharmaAbortive</p><p> Captopril Tablets
21、25mgChangzhou PharmaceuticalAbortive</p><p> Azithromycin for Injection0.5gHainan Poly PharmaceuticalAbortive</p><p> Source: Sunshine Medical Procurement All-in-One, Menet, PDB, Guotai J
22、unan International.</p><p> The preliminary results revealed distinct strategies of enterprises: 1) new entrants and small players (enterprises whose market share was well below 10% before the Joint Procure
23、ment) with large-scale production capacity such as Huahai pharmaceutical and Jingxin pharmaceutical, were the most active bidders and the biggest winners, thanks to sufficient incremental market; 2) enterprises that have
24、 occupied major market share of popular products before the Joint Procurement also strived to win; for</p><p> Most of the involved enterprises are expected to face negative impacts to profitability at diff
25、erent levels, except new entrants, with consideration to 1) the increase in sales volume hardly affecting the adverse effect on profitability triggered by price discount for previous major players if bids are won; and 2)
26、 candidates that failed the bid as well as players which had not</p><p> passed the QCE yet may confront with greater pressure as we anticipate that the government will consider the bid price as a significa
27、nt reference point for developing medical reimbursement standards and thus the products of abovementioned players may also face strict price control; moreover, such players need to fight fiercely for the rest of the mark
28、et share, and their profitability is consequently expected to be further dragged by marketing fees. Nevertheless, as supporting documents are still</p><p> The Joint Procurement is expected to gradually squ
29、eeze the excess profits enjoyed by generics manufacturing, pulling down the valuation of the industry. We are not worried that the preliminary results of the first round of Joint Procurement will discourage QCE, consider
30、ing that 1) the results revealed that Joint Procurement is pretty attractive to new entrants, as it provides them with new profit growth drivers; we therefore forecast that more new players will be encouraged to enter in
31、to generic</p><p> In the long term, the Joint Procurement is expected to redraw the competitive landscape of generics manufacturing, to stimulate an upgrade for China's healthcare industry and to impro
32、ve industry concentration. The Joint Procurement is designed to help pharmaceuticals reduce selling expenses so as to reduce drug prices, which is expected to promote the transformation of generic drug pricing model to c
33、ost plus appropriate profit. In other words, cost control will become particularly critical in th</p><p> The Joint Procurement is also not favourable to the pharmaceutical distribution industry as a whole,
34、 however, leading enterprises are expected to be less affected. The fall in prices of generics is also bad for revenue growth for distributors. However, compared with manufacturers, distributors, especially leading distr
35、ibutors, can be more flexible in product selection, so the impact on distributors is expected to be far less than the impact on manufacturers. In addition, we noted from the offici</p><p> Investment sugges
36、tion: Due to the Joint Procurement, pressure and uncertainty remain for short-term and medium-term performance of the manufacturing industry, which trims down the value of manufacturing business. Therefore, we continue t
37、o recommend temporarily avoiding the manufacturing industry. Considering that the distribution industry has relatively clear prospects as it has gradually escaped risk brought by the two-invoice system and is less affect
38、ed by Joint Procurement, we recommend conti</p><p> Table-2: Peers Comparison of the Health Care Industry</p><p> Distributors and Retailers</p><p> HK-Listed:</p><p&g
39、t; Sinopharm1099 HKHKD32.9091,03714.9 14.1 12.4 11.02.22.01.81.50.915.53.97.87.46.2</p><p> China Resources Pharma3320 HKHKD10.9268,62719.9 16.5 14.1 12.31.61.21.
40、11.00.98.83.78.67.46.6</p><p> Shanghai Pharma-H2607 HKHKD17.3454,24811.5 10.2 9.28.31.11.11.01.00.911.44.211.7 8.57.4</p><p> Simple Average15.4 13.6
41、 11.9 10.51.61.51.31.20.911.93.99.47.76.7</p><p> Weighted Average15.6 13.9 12.1 10.71.71.51.41.20.912.33.99.07.76.7</p><p> Mainland-Listed:</p><
42、;p> Shanghai Pharma-A601607 CH CNY 17.6054,24813.4 11.8 10.9 9.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 11.1 4.6 11.7 8.1 7.1</p>
43、<p> Huadong Medicine000963 CH CNY 27.2244,92922.3 18.0 14.5 11.9 4.7 4.0 3.4 2.8 0.6 22.9 12.6 19.5 12.5 9.9</p>
44、<p> Jointown Pharma600998 CH CNY 14.9731,81817.2 20.9 17.2 14.2 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.8 6.8 3.3 17.8 14.5 12.1</p>&l
45、t;p> China National Med600511 CH CNY 23.6520,46415.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5 n.a. 13.8 5.7 10.5 n.a. n.a.</p>
46、<p> Realcan Pharma002589 CH CNY 8.0313,67712.0 9.8 8.0 6.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.3 12.9 4.0 12.2 7.3 6.0</p>
47、<p> GX Liuzhou Pharma603368 CH CNY 26.687,82417.2 13.2 10.5 8.6 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.4 13.3 5.8 15.7 n.a. n.a.</p>
48、<p> Nanjing Pharma600713 CH CNY 4.435,22316.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.4 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 13.8 n.a. n.a. Sinopharm Accord000028 C
49、H CNY 43.2919,80217.5 15.5 13.9 12.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1 11.4 4.7 10.5 8.8 7.7</p><p> Zhejiang Huatong002758
50、CH CNY 7.411,76137.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 28.4 n.a. n.a. Zhejiang Zhenyuan000705 CH CNY 6.122,315
51、34.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.5 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 22.1 n.a. n.a. Beijing Tongrentang600085 CH CNY 30.0146,58940.4 37.1 33.3
52、 30.2 4.9 4.5 </p><p> Tasly Pharma600535 CH CNY 19.5833,52621.6 18.5 16.0 13.6 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.0 16.8
53、7.3 19.0 12.0 10.9</p><p> YN Hongxiang Yixintang002727 CH CNY 22.2014,26827.3 23.3 18.6 15.1 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.3 0.8 13.2
54、 6.3 17.5 n.a. n.a.</p><p> Laobaixing Pharmacy603883 CH CNY 56.7418,30141.1 35.8 28.8 23.3 5.5 5.0 4.5 3.8 1.2 14.1
55、 6.1 31.1 n.a. n.a.</p><p> China Meheco600056 CH CNY 12.9815,69910.7 8.7 7.4 6.2 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.4 17.4
56、 5.8 12.4 n.a. n.a.</p><p> Simple Average22.9 19.3 16.3 13.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.0 13.7 6.1 17.4 11.3 9.7</
57、p><p> Weighted Average22.3 20.4 17.5 15.0 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.2 13.8 6.6 16.7 11.8 10.1</p><p> Gloabal-Listed:</p&g
58、t;<p> Mckesson CorpMCK USUSD122.86187,5405.4 383.9 9.18.72.32.52.42.10.00.60.14.8 20.7 7.7</p><p> Cardinal Health IncCAH USUSD52.39121,95312.9 63.9 10.5
59、 9.92.42.72.52.40.14.00.610.0 19.3 7.9</p><p> Amerisourcebergen CorpABC USUSD81.89135,59549.0 10.8 11.9 11.08.66.05.44.7n.a.66.44.512.8 11.1 7.9</p>
60、<p> Henry Schein IncHSIC USUSD83.7999,79232.4 20.5 18.7 17.44.63.63.12.72.220.17.812.4 14.2 12.4</p><p> Patterson Cos IncPDCO USUSD22.7416,87012.6 10.5 15.
61、8 14.61.61.51.41.4n.a.14.15.814.2 10.5 11.4</p><p> WBAWBA USUSD82.32608,29221.7 16.2 12.6 11.73.13.03.23.00.718.87.513.3 10.0 10.0</p><p> Cele
62、sioCLS1 GREUR26.0046,673n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.2.82.8 n.a. n.a.n.a.(15.9)(4.3)15.4 40.9 n.a.</p><p> Medipal Holdings Corp7459 JPJPY2,545.00 42,82319.9 16.5
63、 17.6 16.91.31.21.11.1n.a.7.52.26.27.28.7</p><p> Alfresa Holdings Corp2784 JPJPY3,070.00 49,64821.5 18.7 18.5 17.31.71.51.41.34.68.62.75.86.2 10.1</p><
64、;p> Suzuken Co Ltd9987 JPJPY6,130.00 43,59228.3 30.9 26.4 26.71.51.41.41.43.44.71.67.15.9 12.3</p><p> Australian PharmaAPI AUAUD1.604,39814.9 16.3 13.6 12.
65、91.41.51.51.41.19.03.36.39.46.2</p><p> Simple Average21.9 58.8 15.5 14.72.92.52.32.21.712.52.99.8 14.1 9.5</p><p> Weighted Average22.2 73.6 13.2
66、 12.43.43.13.02.80.917.34.611.1 13.4 9.5</p><p> Pharmaceuticals</p><p> HK-Listed:</p><p> CSPC Pharma1093 HKHKD11.5471,99025.4 19.8 15.5 12.4
67、4.74.03.42.80.621.815.622.5 12.5 9.6</p><p> Sihuan Pharma460 HKHKD1.7816,85910.1 9.98.98.61.31.21.11.01.312.310.49.97.26.4</p><p> Sino Biopharm1177 HKH
68、KD5.2165,84323.1 19.4 16.5 14.25.23.93.22.71.026.814.822.6 10.3 8.1</p><p> Luye Pharma2186 HKHKD5.3417,48815.4 11.8 10.0 9.12.11.81.51.30.716.510.411.9
69、 9.88.5</p><p> Livzon Pharma-H1513 HKHKD23.9020,5413.3 13.6 12.0 10.71.31.31.21.10.99.87.017.2 8.57.1</p><p> HEC-H1558 HKHKD28.0012,65717.0 12.8
70、 11.6 9.83.83.12.72.20.826.417.711.6 n.a. n.a.</p><p> 3Sbio Inc1530 HKHKD10.4826,65824.5 20.7 16.2 13.43.02.82.42.00.714.58.422.5 14.1 11.0</p>&
71、lt;p> Fosun Pharma-H2196 HKHKD23.7071,08916.2 17.9 15.0 12.91.91.81.71.60.810.64.331.0 23.2 19.8</p><p> Fosun Int.656 HKHKD12.38105,8117.06.25.65.00.90.80.70.6
72、0.514.02.87.08.77.8</p><p> SSY Group2005 HKHKD6.3819,22927.3 20.4 16.4 13.45.34.53.83.10.723.514.713.6 n.a. n.a.</p><p> United Lab.3933 HKHKD4.497,36
73、277.3 10.7 8.47.11.11.11.00.90.410.14.011.8 4.83.7</p><p> Xinhua Pharma-H719 HKHKD3.733,6809.3n.a. n.a. n.a.0.8 n.a. n.a. n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.12.9 n.a.
74、n.a. China Grand Pharma512 HKHKD3.6511,44217.8 13.0 9.67.23.72.51.81.30.320.1n.a.11.3 n.a. n.a.</p><p> GZ BYS Pharma874 HKHKD30.0065,46620.5 12.5 14.2 12.62.2
75、1.91.81.6n.a.16.29.69.5 18.9 14.5</p><p> Company Report:Sinopharm (01099 HK)</p><p> 公司報告:國藥控股 (01099 HK)</p><p> Little Impact from the Joint Procurement, Maint
76、ain "Accumulate"</p><p> 國家?guī)Я坎少徲绊懖淮?,維持“收集”</p><p> The Joint Procurement is not favourable to the pharmaceutical distribution</p><p> industry as a whole, however, lead
77、ing enterprises such as Sinopharm are expected to be less affected. The fall in prices of generics is bad for revenue growth for distributors. However, compared with manufacturers, distributors, especially leading distri
78、butors, can be more flexible in product selection, so the impact on distributors is expected to be far less than on manufacturers. In addition, we noted from the official interpretation that the government is willing to
79、help concentrate the pharm</p><p> Rating:Accumulate</p><p> Maintained</p><p> 評級:收集 (維持)</p><p> 6-18m TP目標(biāo)價:HK$44.33</p><p> Revised from 原目標(biāo)價:
80、HK$44.33</p><p> Share price 股價:HK$32.900</p><p> Stock performance</p><p><b> 股價表現(xiàn)</b></p><p> leading distributor with a relatively complete distribu
81、tion network.</p><p> With the issuance of 204.56 mn shares on Dec. 14, the acquisition of China National Scientific Instruments and Materials Co., Ltd. completed successfully. Therefore, we revise up 2018-
82、2020 EPS by 2.1%/ 2.4%/ 3.3% to RMB2.069/ RMB2.421/ RMB2.855, respectively</p><p> Basically getting rid of the adverse impact triggered by the two-invoice system, the Company is returning to stable operati
83、ons. As profitability recovery is a certainty in</p><p><b> 50.0</b></p><p><b> 40.0</b></p><p><b> 30.0</b></p><p><b> 20
84、.0</b></p><p><b> 10.0</b></p><p><b> 0.0</b></p><p><b> (10.0)</b></p><p><b> (20.0)</b></p><p>
85、 % of return</p><p> 2019, we suggest paying attention to the Company. Maintain TP of HK$44.33 which represents 16.1x 2019F PER, and investment rating of "Accumulate".</p><p> Risk:
86、 1) a change in regional distribution policy for drugs and medical devices; 2) higher-than-expected borrowing amount and interest rates.</p><p> 國家?guī)Я坎少彶焕诜咒N行業(yè),但是,龍頭企業(yè)如國藥控股有望抵消該等影響。仿制藥價格下跌對分銷商收入增速不利。不過相比生產(chǎn)企業(yè)
87、,分銷企業(yè)特別是龍頭企業(yè)在產(chǎn)品的選擇上更為靈活,因此國家?guī)Я坎少弻Ψ咒N企業(yè)的影響預(yù)計將遠(yuǎn)小于對生產(chǎn)企業(yè)的影響。另外,我們從官方解讀中發(fā)現(xiàn)政府有推動分銷企業(yè)集中化以換取更低藥價的意愿。因此,我們認(rèn)為龍頭企業(yè)將更有可能通過獲取更多市場份額來抵消國家?guī)Я坎少弻τ麕淼牟涣加绊?。從上海地區(qū)配送企業(yè)擬中選結(jié)果看,25 個產(chǎn)品的的分銷權(quán)由國藥控股以及上藥控股瓜分。我們認(rèn)為其他地區(qū)即使不對分銷企業(yè)數(shù)目進(jìn)行強(qiáng)制要求也會出現(xiàn)類似情況,因?yàn)閷ιa(chǎn)企業(yè)來說
88、,選擇擁有較為完善的分銷網(wǎng)絡(luò)的龍頭公司作為產(chǎn)品的唯一配送商是控制成本的最佳方法。</p><p> 隨著 204.56 百萬股新股于 12 月 14 日發(fā)行,公司對中國科學(xué)器材的收購順利完成,我們因此分別上調(diào) 2018-2020 年每股凈利 2.1%/ 2.4%/ 3.3%至人民幣 2.069/ 人民幣 2.421/ 人民幣 2.855。 </p><p> 公司已逐步走出兩票制所帶來
89、的負(fù)面影響,業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)作逐步穩(wěn)定。2019 年公司盈利恢復(fù)確定性強(qiáng),我們建議關(guān)注。維持 44.33 港幣的目標(biāo)價(對應(yīng) 16.1 倍 2019 年市盈率)以及“收集”的投資評級。 </p><p> 風(fēng)險:1)藥品和醫(yī)療器械的區(qū)域分銷政策改變;2)高于預(yù)期的借款金額及利率。 </p><p> Dec/17Mar/18Jun/18Sep/18Dec/18</p>&l
90、t;p> HSISinopharm-H</p><p><b> 相對恒指變動 %</b></p><p> Source:Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International.</p><p> Shares in issue (m) 總股數(shù) (m)2,767.1Major shareholder
91、大股東CNPGC 33.9% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市 值 (HK$ m)91,037.6Free float (%) 自由流通比率(%)40.1</p><p> 3 month average vol. 3 個月平均成交股數(shù)(‘000)5,011.0FY18 Net gearing (%) FY18 凈負(fù)債/股東資金 (%)42.9</p><p>
92、 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$)45.650 / 29.350FY18 Est. NAV (HK$) FY18 每股估值(港元)58.1</p><p> Source︰the Company, Guotai Junan International.</p><p> Table-3: Key Earnings Adjustments
93、 for Sinopharm</p><p> Source: Guotai Junan International.</p><p> Figure-1: Forward PE Band of SinopharmFigure-2: Forward PB Band of Sinopharm</p><p><b> 50</b><
94、/p><p><b> 45</b></p><p><b> 40</b></p><p><b> 35</b></p><p><b> 30</b></p><p><b> 25</b><
95、/p><p><b> 20</b></p><p><b> 15</b></p><p><b> 10</b></p><p><b> 5</b></p><p><b> 0</b></p
96、><p><b> Sinopharm</b></p><p> PER (historical mean)PER (current)PER (High) PER (Low)PER curve</p><p><b> 6.0</b></p><p><b> 5.5</b
97、></p><p><b> 5.0</b></p><p><b> 4.5</b></p><p><b> 4.0</b></p><p><b> 3.5</b></p><p><b> 3.0&
98、lt;/b></p><p><b> 2.5</b></p><p><b> 2.0</b></p><p><b> 1.5</b></p><p><b> 1.0</b></p><p><b>
99、 0.5</b></p><p><b> 0.0</b></p><p><b> Sinopharm</b></p><p> PBR (historical mean)PBR (current)PBR (High) PBR (Low)PBR curve</p><p>
100、 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International.Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International.</p><p><b> F</b></p><p> Total Shareholders' Equity31,81135,25844,93750,288
101、56,613</p><p> Year end 31 Dec (RMB m)2016A2017A2018F2019F2020F</p><p> PBT8,92510,17312,21414,33616,950</p><p> Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.</p&
102、gt;<p> Company Report:CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093 HK)</p><p> 公司報告:石藥集團(tuán) (01093 HK)</p><p> An Attractive Target for Long-term Investment, Maintain "Buy"</p><
103、;p> 長線投資的吸引標(biāo)的,維持“買入”</p><p> Although CSPC failed the bids of all 4 products in the Joint Procurement, little</p><p> affect is expected on CSPC's 2019 earnings, as such products (incl
104、uding captopril tablet 25mg, amoxicillin capsules 250mg, azithromycin tablets 250mg & 500mg, and tramadol hydrochloride tablets 50mg) currently account for less than 1% of the company's total sales.</p>&l
105、t;p> Sales of key product Xuanning and Nuolining may be hurt in the short to medium term. Jingxin Pharmaceutical/ Hansoh Pharmaceutical won the bid for amlodipine besylate tablets (5mg*28 tablets)/ imatinib mesylate
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