電力市場環(huán)境下梯級水電廠報價策略研究.pdf

1、華北電力大學(xué)（保定）碩士學(xué)位論文電力市場環(huán)境下梯級水電廠報價策略研究姓名：王立晶申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：電力系統(tǒng)及其自動化指導(dǎo)教師：劉觀起20081220華北電力人學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文摘要摘要隨著我國電力市場化進(jìn)程的加快和“廠網(wǎng)分開，竟價上網(wǎng)“運(yùn)營機(jī)制的實(shí)施，發(fā)電企業(yè)逐漸成為市場競爭的主體。在電力市場環(huán)境下，梯級水電廠如何參與市場競爭優(yōu)化發(fā)電生產(chǎn)過程，采取策略性報價實(shí)現(xiàn)發(fā)電利潤最大化，成為其面臨的首要問題。本文以電力市場出清電價預(yù)測、容量分配

2、和梯級水電廠竟價策略為主要內(nèi)容，進(jìn)行了以下幾方面的研究：采用粒子群優(yōu)化BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法預(yù)測市場出清電價，在此基礎(chǔ)上對發(fā)電廠基于預(yù)測市場出清價的競價策略進(jìn)行分析。最后，對某梯級水電廠以收益最大為目標(biāo)進(jìn)行分析計算，得出了在竟價上網(wǎng)條件下的電量優(yōu)化策略。關(guān)鍵詞：電力市場電價預(yù)測，投資組合理論，報價策略ABSTRACTWiththeaccelerationprocessofpowermarketablization，andtheimplemen

3、tationofoperationmechanismof“S印arationofpowerplant疳ompowcrnetwork，competitiVepriceoflistingpowernetwork’PowergeneratingenterpriseshaVebecomethemainbodyofmarketcompetitionUnderthepowermarketenViroruIlent，howcascadedhydrop

4、owerplantsparticipateinmarketcompetition，optimizesproductionprocessofpowergenerationandadoptsthetacticpriceinordertoachieVethemaximumprofitofpowergenerationhaVebecometheforemostproblemThisthesisstudiesthefollowingaspects

5、wimthepredictionofmarginalelectricitypricesinpowersyStem，allocationofgenerationcapacityandthecompetitiVepricetacticsasthemaincontentsTheBPneuralnetworktrainedbyPSOmethodisadaptedtopredictthemarginalelectricitypriceinthes

6、ystem，andanalyzesthecompetitiVepricetacticsoftheclearingpriceofpowergeneratingplantbasedonthemarketpredictionAccordinglyahydropowcrplantwithmaximumprofitsastheobjectiVeisanalyzedaJldcalculatedsoastoobtaintheoptimalstruct

7、uretacticsofelectricityquantitiesinthecaseoftheconlpetitiVepriceoflistingpowernetworkⅥ，angLijing(PowerSystemanditsAutomation)DirectedbyProfLiuGuanqiKEYWoRDS：EIectrici塒Market，ElectricityPriceForecasting，PortfoIioTheory’Bi