[雙語翻譯]人口老齡化外文翻譯—移民、人口老齡化、勞動力生產率與經濟增長的關系（原文）

1、IJASOS- International E-Journal of Advances in Social Sciences, Vol. IV, Issue 10, April 2018 http://ijasos.ocerintjournals.org 77 THE RELATION BETWEEN THE MIGRATION, POPULATION AGING, LABOR FORCE PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONO

2、MIC GROWTH: AN ANALYSIS FOR BULGARIA Venelin Terziev1*, Hamit Can2 1Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural History, Moscow, Russia, Prof. D.Sc.(Ec.), D.Sc. (National Security), Ph.D., National Military Un

3、iversity, Veliko Tarnovo, Bulgaria; University of Rousse, Rousse, Bulgaria, email: terziev@skmat.com; 2Ph.D., Institute of Social Science, Namik Kemal University, Department of Economics, Nam?k Kemal University, Tekirda?

4、, Turkey, e-mail: hamitcan88@hotmail.com. *Corresponding author Abstract In this study, the relationship between population, elderly population and economic growth is analyzed theoretically, taking into account the demo

5、graphic change of the Bulgarian population and the more aging phenomenon. Thus, the change in the age structure of the Bulgarian population was investigated and the factors affecting the growth of the relationship betw

6、een economic growth were investigated. Developed countries are trying to solve the problem of low population growth with migration. Developed countries with younger populations, such as the European Union, also allow d

7、wellings in some periods to dampen the population and prevent the resulting loss of employment. According to a report published by the EU Statistical Institute (Eurostat), it is stated that the number of the population

8、 working in the European Union will decrease by an average of 50 million in 2060. When the current migration rate is taken into account, it is predicted that by 2060 the number of people working in European Union count

9、ries will be 110 million people less than today's number. Migration in the demographic development of the European Union has a great proposition. If a qualified migration flow is provided, it is foreseen that the d

10、eficiencies that will arise in the European Union employment market in the coming years will be eliminated. In this study, attempts were made to determine the size of the changes taking place in the country's econo

11、my, depending on the livelihoods in Bulgaria. Keywords: Migration and Aging Population, Economic Growth, Labor Productivity, Bulgaria. 1 INTRODUCTION When the changes in past birth and death rates are examined, fertilit

12、y rates are decreasing, life expectancy is increasing, and all of these causes the change of global age structure. “Population aging is due to a change in the age structure of a population, a decrease in the share of c

13、hildren and young people in that population, and an increasing share of elderly people (over 60 years or over 65 years). The global aging process is also called 'demographic transformation'. In this transformat

14、ion, the proportion of the elderly population in the total population increases as the age group of the population changes in shape, the mortality and fertility decline, the expected life expectancy after birth increas

15、es and the proportion of children IJASOS- International E-Journal of Advances in Social Sciences, Vol. IV, Issue 10, April 2018 http://ijasos.ocerintjournals.org 79 et al., 2008: pp. 1-38; Bloom et al. 2011: pp. 12-13;

16、Deaton, 2000: pp. 1-46). The decline in the age-old population that can work after the aging of the population causes the workforce in the economy to become a scarce factor of production. In countries with older populat

17、ions, the number of working people entering the labor market is reduced, while the lower productivity due to the physical and mental wear of the older workforce reduces the total labor supply. Another consequence of po

18、pulation aging is that the increase in social security and tax cuts also has a different impact on the labor market. The increase in the elderly and dependent population increases the cost of financing pension benefits

19、. This increasing burden is affecting the population working through the social security system. This means that the cost of labor increases. The increase in labor costs, which constitutes a major obstacle to employmen

20、t, also reduces the tendency to work for the employer while reducing the tendency to work for the working population on the one hand. Compulsory interruptions of the social security system have an increasing effect on

21、 unemployment (Salin, 1996: pp. 25-26). Young people who have recently completed their education constitute a general human capital that can integrate technological innovations (Железаров, 2009; Железаров, 2005; Иванов

22、, Железаров, 1998). However, despite the fact that the human capital of an employee who has worked for the same company over a long period has its own advantages, the transfer of this human capital from one place to an

23、other has been difficult and useless. At the same time, it is believed that the elderly are at the lowest productivity level in general for all employers (Santos, 2001). In addition, companies prefer young people to de

24、preciate costs such as recruitment and training, assuming they will work longer than elderly people (Jolivet, 2001: pp. 65-82). With the aging of the population, a number of possible developments are expected, especiall

25、y in the developed countries, in relation to the banking sector. There is an expectation on the active sides of the banks that the demand for the loan will decrease with the decrease of the young population. Therefore,

26、 the volume of individual credits is expected to decrease. On the passive side of the banks, it may come into question that the tax incentives and subsidies required by the public for the creation of new saving instru

27、ments together with the aging population may come into question. Pension fund schemes have also been consolidated within the framework of more serious risk surveillance, particularly in the Netherlands, and in some oth

28、er European countries. In addition, there is a need for efforts to make up for falling claims by other products for the elderly and retired population. It is anticipated that the evaluation of non-bank financial instit

29、utions such as insurance companies, pension funds and mutual funds will also increase the demand for such institutions (Groome et al., 2006, pp. 44-47). Due to these developments, it is expected that there will be a do

30、wnward pressure on the demand for bank loans and deposits. In this way, banks will need to pursue more competitive policies in order for their growth to continue. Prettner (2012) and Lee et al. (2011), but most of the l

31、iterature in the literature suggests a negative relationship between population aging and economic growth (Narciso, 2010; Bloom et al., 2010, pp. 583-612; Lisenkova et al., 2012, pp. 12-13; Walder and Döring, 2012

32、, pp. 63-80). Hock and Weil (2012); Walder and Döring (2012) argue that the increase in aging populations will cause a decline in consumption and growth will be hindered. Auerbach et al. (1989) OECD members have i

33、dentified the economic dynamics of population aging across the four countries. The result of the study is that national savings rates, real wage rates and demand deposits are highly sensitive to the old dependency rate

34、. Barlow (1994) examined the relationship between population growth and economic growth. In the short term, the increase in fertility has a negative effect on the growth of per capita income; Whereas in the long run th

35、e direction of this effect changes positively. Because today's fertility rate is highly correlated with past fertility and population growth rate will be negative in the short term and positive in the long term. Bl

36、oom et al. (2011) The results of population aging have been analyzed for economic growth. For OECD countries, the prolongation of life expectancy, the downsizing of families, more savings for retirement, and increased

37、participation rates in the female workforce will not be adversely affected by the aging of the economic growth population. However, in countries that are not members of the OECD, especially in developed countries, the

38、labor force that can be employed due to the aging of the population is experienced and therefore the production will be adversely affected. Bloom et al. (2001) The relationship between economic growth and demographic t

39、ransformation is examined in East Asia, Japan, OECD, North America, Eastern Europe, North Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and South Africa and Saharan countries. Changes in the age structure of the country have si

40、gnificant effects on the economic performance of the country. Countries with high rates of children allocating resources to child care from their national income cause pressure on the rate of economic growth. Conversel

41、y, if the density of working population of an country is too high, any additional production of this group will positively affect economic growth. Middle age and older age groups will have a large share, and a signific

42、ant portion of the country's resources will be made available to the needs of those not in production. Bloom et al. (2006) examined the impact of demographic change on the social security system and savings. The re