港股地產(chǎn)行業(yè)2019年投資策略防守反擊，機會大于風險

1、ChinaPropertyCounterAttackingOpptunityOutweighsRisk11252018AnalystJianSONGsongjian@.cnSAC:S0190518010002SFC:BMV912ContactNingxinYANyanningxin@.cnSAC：S0190118100175EconomyFluctuatesPoliciesStabilizeWithdownturnpressureone

2、conomymoarypolicywillmaintainprudent:Loosemoneytohedgeeconomydownturntightcredittopreventassetbubble.Fromdeleveragingtomaintainleveragetherewouldbemepoliciesintroducedtoboosteconomysupptingprivatecompanieslikefeestaxredu

3、ction.FChinapropertyindustryregulationwillinsiston“Houseisusedflivingbutnotspeculation”thetargetisto“controlhouseprice”.Aftertwoyearsofadjustmentftier1tier2cities’housemarketthemoststrictpolicytendtoeaseproppinguphousesa

4、les.MarketBacktoNmalMarketSharesConcentratingIndustryregulationcontinuesdestockingcomestoanend.Thehousemarketisbacktonmal.ThegrowthratefhousesalesGFAisfallingthesellthroughratedecreasesto50%.Meanwhilelmarketisalsocooling

5、downwithhighunsoldratelowpremiumratemediumsmallenterprisesaretendtowaitbutlargecompaniesaremeactiveonacquiringl.Wefecastleadingcompaniestoachieveyearlyincreaseof1020%oncontractsalesmarketshareswillbemeconcentrating.Thece

6、rtaintyfleadingcompaniesistheirsalesearnings.DifficultFinancingDiversifiedCostDuetorestrictiononpropertycompanyfinancinginChinainterestraterisinginUSfinancialcostfChinapropertycompaniesdiversifieswith300400bpsincreasefth

7、osemediumsmallcompanies.Butleadingcompaniesshowgreatadvantageinmaintainingmuchlowerfinancialcost.RMBdepreciationwouldalsodeteriatetheirPLthroughexchangeloss.Asawholethefinancingwindowisstillopensalesturnoverisstillsmooth

8、.CounterAttackingOpptunityOutweighsRiskLookingaheadto2019uncertaintystillexistsindomesticinternationalenvironmentweshouldsticktothecertaintyofpropertyindustry.WemaintainOverweightonChinaPropertybycounterattackingopptunit

9、iesoutweighsriskin2019.Thebaseofdefenseisthehisticlowvaluationcompaniesshareholdersbuybackhighdividendyield.Thetimetoattackiswhentheregulationseaseintier1tier2citiesleadingcompaniescanstillexptheirsizeachievehigherthanav

10、eragegrowthrate.Recommendations:1)WeprefertothoseleadingcompanieswithstrongfinancialsfundamentalslowgearinghighpayoutratioourtoppicksareChinaJinmao(817.HK)Longf(960.HK)CRL(1109.HK)highbetanamesincludingCIFI(884.HK)Future

11、L(1030.HK)2)Withsteadydevelopmentheathycashflownoncyclicaleffectspropertymanagementisalsoagoodchoice.AstheconcentrationofhousemarketleadingpropertymanagementcompanieswouldalsoachieveahighersolidgrowthourtoppickisGreentow

12、nService(2869.HK)wealsolikeCountryGardenServices(6098.HK)COPHL(2669.HK).Potentialrisks:lowermacroeconomygrowthratestricterregulationstightliquiditylowerthanexpectedcontractedsalesRMBdepreciation.Overweight（Maintained）表1、

13、中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)升級過程...........................................7表2、美國加息時間表.............................................................................................8表3、近期房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)政策一覽.................................................

14、............................9表4、110月份主要上市房企銷售情況...............................................................13表5、近期地產(chǎn)公司融資一覽...............................................................................14表6、主要上市公司的信貸評級

15、...........................................................................15表7、主要上市物業(yè)管理公司...............................................................................16表8、港股通持股（截止20181123）.............................

16、......................................18表9、部分回購或增持的統(tǒng)計...............................................................................19表10、行業(yè)估值表（截止20181123）.................................................................