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1、外文翻譯原文：原文：UseVMIToImproveFecastingIvealwaysbeenabigbelieverthatusingdownstreamsupplychaininfmationcanimprovedemfecastingplanning.Ivewrittenseveralcolumnsthatdiscussedvariousaspectsofthisduringmy12yeartenureinwritingftheJ

2、ournalofBusinessFecasting(JBF).Thesediscussedthepotentialuseofdownstreamdataincluding(asIvedefinedthem):customersdersreplenishmentfecastsretailerwarehousewithdrawalsPointofSale(POS)datafecasts.VendManagedInventy(VMI)Coll

3、abativePlanningFecastingReplenishment(CPFR)infmation.InthesearticlesIproposedthatoneshouldbeabletoimprovefecastingbyleveragingthesetypesofinfmationsincetheyaregeneratedclosertotheconsumer.Assuchdemchangesoughttobedetecte

4、dsoonerbesubjecttolessdisttionfromthe“BullWhip“effectthataddsmenoisetoconsumptiondemasitmovesupthesupplychain.GenerallyIvebeenpreachingthatthesedownstreamdatasourcesoughttoprovidemuchbetter“demsignals“thanamanufacturersd

5、ersshipments.VMIDataOughtToBeUsefulAlmostsevenyearsagoIwroteanarticleintheWinter20012002issueoftheJBFtitled“VMICanBeGoodfYourFecastingHealth.“InitItalkedaboutthefactthatthehistyofVMIhadbeenmixedbecauseoftencustomerssucha

6、sretailershadbeencoercingtheirsupplierstomanagetheirinventiesfthemffreewithlittleperceivedgaintothesuppliers.HoweverImaintainedthatwhendonewellVMIprogramscanimproveintercompanysupplychainoperationsbecausetheyhelpasupplie

7、rbettercodinateproductflowtocustomers.InthisregardthebenefitsofVMIincludeensuringthat:?Amanufacturingcustomersproductionoperationsarenotdisruptedbymaterialshtages.?Adistributretailercustomerisnotcaughtshtonproductavailab

8、ility.independentoftheothersuppliersystemsovertimeanyplanstoconnectthemusuallyfallbythewaysideastheITdepartmentmovesontootherpriityprojects.ItbecomesharderhardertointegratetheVMIsystemsintotheinternalplanningsystems.Even

9、tuallyitwindsuptobethecasethatunlesssomeonebecomespassionateaboutabeliefthatVMIdatacanyieldsignificantbenefitsnoonewantstobothertodothebusinesscaseanalysisneededtostartanintegrationproject.Thisleavesfecastersplannerswith

10、littleinfmationaboutthecustomersfutureneedsexceptthosetheycangleanfromhistical“sellin“salestothatcustomer.ACaseStudyInUsingVMISowhileIvebeendiscussinghowtheuseofVMIinfmationoughttobeabletoimprovedemfecastingplanning(sinc

11、eIwrotethatarticlealmostsevenyearsago)Ivebeenatalosstofindacompanythathasprovedittobethecaseeventriedtodoso.MostfecastersIvediscusseditwithdidntthinkitwaswththeefft.Thatwasuntilthispastacademicyearwhenalargeconsumerprodu

12、ctscompanydecidedtosponsanMITgraduatestudenttolookintoitfthemasapartofhisthesisresearch.IadvisedthisstudentIampleasedtoreptthathisfindingsconvincedthesponsthatthereweresignificantgainstobegottenfromleveragingVMIinshtterm

13、fecasting—fuptofourweeksout.(XihangKousthesisisreferencedbelowfmedetail).TheanalysisthestudentconductedusedweeklyhisticaldemdatafecastsftwoproductlinesaDryaTemperatureSensitiveproductline.Demdatawascollectedf29productsso

14、ldtotwogroceryretailersthatdifferedintermsoftheamountofpromotionstheyconducted.Thefirst.CustomerAextensivelyleveragesweeklypromotionstomarketmerchizewhilethesecondcustomerBisaneverydaylowpricemarketerthatrunsfewpromotion

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