流域分類(lèi)預(yù)報(bào)方法研究與應(yīng)用.pdf

1、大連理工大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文流域分類(lèi)預(yù)報(bào)方法研究與應(yīng)用姓名：喻松陽(yáng)申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專(zhuān)業(yè)：水文學(xué)與水資源指導(dǎo)教師：王本德20050601流域分類(lèi)預(yù)報(bào)方法研究與應(yīng)用TheResearchofDistributionofForecastWaterinDrainagebasinorapplicationAbstractnleforecastingprogrammeforthelargereservoirsinChinaatthemomenthas

2、beencompletedwithatagheraccuracyofhistoricalfloodscheckHoweverthecheckforfloodsintheseyearsislowerinpreciNonThoseshorttermfloods，、Ⅳithabiggere附inforecastvalueandthehistoricalonesarecallednonstandardizedfloodItiS也enonstan

3、dardizedfloodthatiSarealheadachetothedispatchersontheforecastandcontrolofthelargereservoirsBecausethecalculationprecisionisnoteasytoconlrul，andthiswillresultinabiggerfloodforecastingerrorandhigherflooddispatchingdifficul

4、tyW1lat’SworseitmayevenaffectthesafetyofthereservoirsTherealeseveralreasoRsforthecausesofnonstandardizedflood：thedifferencesonthecausesandintensityofrainfall，ontherequirementsofputtingacushion，andthecontinuousdroughtFort

5、hehydrologicforecastingmodelONconceptthatiswithacomplexstructureandmanyparameters，thereisnotaⅡeffectivewaytosolvetherealtimecorrectingproblemsAsthenonlineartechnologysuchagFuzzySetsTheoryArtificialNeuraINetworksandGeneti

6、cAlgorithmsbeingusedwidelyanddeeplyinallwalksoflifeitprovidesnewwaysandpossibilitiestosolvealltheseproblemsAcoordiIlgtotheproblemsexistinginthemodempredictioncombingwiththeutilityoftheprojects，usingnowadaysadvancedclassi

7、fyingpredictionmethodtotakeoutthenonstandardizedfloodsandclassifythenonstandardizedfloodsusingtheartificialnervenetworkthenaccordingtothecharactersofthefloodsandlevelsofthefactors，choosingdifferentpatternsofpredicfiortsa

8、ndoptimizethepredictedfactorstopredictthefloodDispatchingthefoldsusingrelevantrulestaisetheaccuracyofthepredictionofthe瑚ervoirinordertaisethelevelofthedispatchingandincreasethepromotingbenefitsandSOcialbenefitsofthereser