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1、ChinaInterSectUBSResearchTHESISMAPaguidetoourthinkingwhatswhereinthisreptOURTHESISINPICTURES?MOSTFAVOUREDLEASTFAVOUREDAlibabaPinduoduoVipshopPIVOTALQUESTIONSQ:CansocialecommercebecomeadriverfonlineretailsalesYes.In201517
2、socialecommerceGMVgrewata58.4%CAGRinChinafasterthanoverallecommerceGMVat26.3%.WeestimateonlineecommerceGMVgrowthwillslowtoa20.3%CAGRover201722reachingRmb15.3trn.WeestimatesocialecommerceGMVwillgrowata35.2%CAGRoverthesame
3、periodreachingRmb2.3trnby2022E15%oftheentireecommercemarket—upfromjust8.5%in2017.me?Q:WhichonlineretailersarebestpositionedinthetransitiontowardssocialecommerceAlibabaPinduoduoarethebestpositionedonlineretailersinthesoci
4、alecommercespaceinourview.Webelievetheyhavescaleadvantagesintermsofusersmerchantsbrsstrongpartnershipsecosystemstherightbusinessmodelstoacquireconsumersincreaseengagementmeefficiently.me?WHATSPRICEDINInvestsbelieveAlibab
5、awillremainthedominantplatfminChinaecommerce.Butbeyondthatinvestsviewsdiverge.TheyareconcernedJDwillnotbeabletoperatelowertiercitiesnewproductcategiesinasignificantwayduetocompetitionfromAlibabasmallerplatfms.Thereismuch
6、mecontroversyaroundPinduoduoasinvestsarenotsurehowitwillfareasAlibabafocusesitsresourcestogoafterPinduoduosceuserbase.UBSVIEWTheecommercemarketinChinaisfragmentingwhichdefiesthecommonlyheldbeliefthatscalewkingeffectsshou
7、lddrivethe“bigtogetbigger“inecommerce.Webelieveecommerceisevolvingincpatingmesocialofflineelementswhichdecreasestardisation.WeexpectsocialecommercetobeakeydriverofoverallecommercegrowthinChinaespeciallyamongnewuserswhoar
8、eyoungerolderfromlowertiercitieshavelessspendingpowerthanexistingecommerceusers.WeexpectAlibabaPinduoduotobenefitmostfromthistrend.EVIDENCEChinassocialecommerceGMVgrewata58.4%CAGRover201517fasterthanthetotalecommerceGMVg
9、rowthrateof26.3%.Thesocialecommerceperationrateofoverallecommercehasrisenfrom2.0%in2013to8.5%in2017FrostXingshengYouxuanNiwonin65.5%17423GMV(Rmbbn)KeyPlayers:YunjiBeidianMembershipBasedSource:CompanydataQianzhaniiMediaUB
10、SestimatesChinaInterSectUBSResearchPIVOTALQUESTIONSreturn?Q:CansocialecommercebecomeadriverfonlineretailsalesUBSVIEWYes.In201517socialecommerceGMVgrewata58.4%CAGRinChinafasterthanoverallecommerceGMVat26.3%.Weestimateonli
11、neecommerceGMVgrowthwillslowtoa20.3%CAGRover201722reachingRmb15.3trn.WeestimatesocialecommerceGMVwillgrowata35.2%CAGRoverthesameperiodreachingRmb2.3trnby2022E15%oftheentireecommercemarket—upfromjust8.5%in2017.WhileChinas
12、mobileinterpopulationisonlygrowinginthesingledigitsonlineshoppersarestillgrowingintheteensastheyonlyrepresent43%ofChinastotalpopulation.AccdingtoQianzhanmethan570muserswillbeusingsocialecommerceplatfmsby2020upfrom223min2
13、017.EVIDENCEInthesocialecommercespaceweidentifythreetypesofplatfms:contentsharinggrouppurchasemembershipbased.Manynewerecommerceapps(suchasPinduoduoMogujie)incpatesocialaspectsintotheplatfmfromthebeginningestablishedecom
14、merceplayerslikeAlibabaJDareaddingsocialfeaturestotheirapps.WealsonotethatvideolivestreamingplatfmssuchasDouyinKuaishouareventuringintoecommercebyleveragingtheirlargeuserbasesenablingKOLstosellgoodsviatheirapps.WHATSPRIC
15、EDINWebelieveinvestsarebecomingmeawareofthepotentialsocialecommerceplatfmspossess.Howeverwethinkinvestshavenotfullyunderstoodthedifferentsocialecommercebusinessmodelsnpricedinallthestockimplications.ThestateofChina’ssoci
16、alecommercemarketChinasecommercemarketshouldcontinuetogrowmuchfasterthanretailsales.Weestimatea201722onlineretailGMVCAGRof20.3%whilewethinkoverallretailsaleswillgrowataCAGRof8.1%overthesameperiod.InouranalysisofUBSEviden
17、ceLabClicksnBrickssurvey(note)wefoundthatonlineperationinmanycategieswasslowingespeciallyasChineseconsumersarespendinglessinmanyhighonlineperationcategiessuchassmartphoneshomeappliances.Howeverwebelieveonlineretailsalesc
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