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1、November27201803:13PM@MGANSTANLEY&CO.LLCRidHillEQUITYANALYST12127619840JamesChoSTRATEGIST121276112882019USCREDebtOutlook2019USCREDebtOutlook||NthAmericaNthAmericaNobodyGoesThereAnymeItsTooCrowded...Recdamountsofdrypowder

2、pushpropertypriceshighercreateamecompetitivelendingmarket.WeexpectstableCMBSissuanceasvolumesshifttoSASBwiderspreadsbutoutperfmancetocps.LossesareunderestimatedbutCMBXbulls&bearsmaybothberight.ItseasytofindfaultwiththeCR

3、Edebtmarket:1)propertypricesstwellaboveprecrisispeaks2)fundamentalgrowthisslowing3)spreadsareneartights4)underwritingstardsareshowingsignsoflooseningasidiosyncraticrisksaregrowing.Bottomlineinourviewriskrewardappearsskew

4、edtothedownside.But$300billiondollarsremainsonthesidelinesthatneedstobedeployeditsincreasinglyturningtoCREdebtasthelessbadalternative.IndeedCREdebtfundshaveincreaseddrypowdermethananyothervehicletypesincetheendof2016CMBS

5、issuanceisstabledespiteanincreasinglyvolatilemarketspreadswererelativelyresilent.Againstthisbackinvestsfacetoughdecisions:higherqualitywithtighterreturnsvs.higherrisk(lowerqualitygreaterleverage).Ourtop10themesf2019:Duet

6、othenatureofthefixedincomemarkettheissuersbondsoftheissuersrecommendeddiscussedinthisreptmaynotbecontinuouslyfollowed.Accdinglyinvestsmustregardthisreptasprovidingstaloneanalysisshouldnotexpectcontinuinganalysisadditiona

7、lreptsrelatingtosuchissuersbondsoftheissuers.MganStanleydoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMganStanleyResearch.AsaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMgan

8、StanleyResearch.InvestsshouldconsiderMganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.FanalystcertificationotherimptantdisclosuresrefertotheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendofthisrept.1.CREpricescontinu

9、etorisebutsomesectslosegroundtotheCPI.2.Moneyonthesidelinescontinuestobuild...3....Creatingamecompetitivelendingenvironment...4....ButalsoafavableCMBStechnical.5.Weexpectstableissuancein2019butshiftingtoSASB.6.Spreadswil

10、loutperfmcpsbywideningless.7.CMBScreditqualityisshowingsignsofloosening...8....idiosyncraticrisksaregrowing.9.Wethinkthemarketunderestimateslosses.10.CMBXbullsbearsspeakdifferentlanguagesbothmayberight.124MonthSpreadHist

11、yExhibit1:CMBSAAAsareatthewiderendoftherangewhileBBBareslightlytighterthanaverage.0.0151955638177662804192245651411070681112173447314085265102148418104480701504351036825016510516736552511253582130959025095350631203001002

12、911075101163300458974SecuritizedProductsUSAgencyMBSTOASUSAgencyMBSTZVUSNonAgencyRMBSResi2.0(RPLAAA)CRTOTRM1CRTOTRLCFUSCMBSAAAUSCMBSBBBAgencyCMBSFreddieA2(10yr)USCLO2.0AAAUSCLO2.0BBBEURCLO2.0AAASubprimeAutoAAASubprimeAuto

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