我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模研究——基于協(xié)整分析和誤差修正模型.pdf

1、對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模研究——基于協(xié)整分析和誤差修正模型姓名：閆紅蕾申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：金融學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：杜奇華20100301AbstractAlongwiththedeepeningofChina’SreformandopeningupandentranceWTO，rapidgrowthofimportandexport，tradesurplusroseyearbyyeaLBesides，coupledwit

2、htheexpansionofinternationaldirectinvestmentandtheinfluxofspeculativecapital，China’SforeignexchangereservesincreasedrapidlyAsofSeptember2009theamountofChina’Sforeignexchangereserveshadreached2399trillionUSdollarsandtheav

3、eragegrowthratehasmountedto25％whichhasattractedextensiveattentionfromscholarsathomeandabroad，SOthescaleofdemandforforeignexchangereserveshasbecomethefocusofacademicandgovernmentdepartment’SOattentionThispaperappliesCOint

4、egrationanalysisanderrorcorrectionmodeltoanalyzetheoptionamountofChina’Sforeignexchangereserveswithdataofthenear25yearsThemainconclusionsofthispaperiSasfollowsForevery1％increaseofthestandardizedtotalvalueofexportswillres

5、ultinforeignexchangereservesincrease0275％Forevery1％increaseofthestandardizedtotalvalueofimportswillresultinforeignexchangereservesincrease0268％Forevery1％increaseofthestandardizedtotalvalueofactuallyutilizedforeigninvestm

6、entwillresultinforeignexchangereservesincrease0268％Forevery1％depreciationofthestandardizedvalueofRMBexchangerratewillresultinforeignexchangereservesincrease0274％Forevery1％increaseofGrOSSdomesticproduct，totalretailsalesof

7、socialcommodities，moneysupplygrowthwillleadto0279％increaseofFERForevery1％increaseofthebalanceofexoticdebtwillleadtoO27％increaseofFERThespeedofadjustmentofforeignofadjustmentlastyearthechangesoftheselfadjustmentThelargert

8、hechangesinexchangereservesdependsontheamountspeedofdemandinFERandtheabilityofamountofFERlastperiod，theslowerthespeedofadjustmentAnyincreaseintherateofchangesindemandofforeignreservewillleadtOchangesinforeignexchangerese

9、rvestoaccelerateForeignexchangereserves’abilitytoadjusttothelongrunequilibriumvalueisstrong，howeversuchalladjustmentmechanisminourcountryisnotobviousatpresentKeywords：FER，ADFtest，F(xiàn)actoranalysis，COintegrationanalysis，Erro