宏觀經濟學曼昆12章

1、,,,5THE REAL ECONOMY IN THE LONG RUN長期中的實際經濟,長期(LR)：所有的經濟變量都有充足的時間作出調整。例如，超越一個合同時期。 實際（real）：沒有貨幣，或不考慮貨幣的影響。 屬于古典理論。 考慮的是一個趨勢,,,,,Production and Growth生產與增長,Chapter 12,Long-Run Economics Growth is the Key to Risin

2、g Living Standard,A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.一國的生活水平決定于它生產物品與勞務的能力。,What is economic growth?,Economic Growth: represents the expansion of a country’s potential GD

3、P or national output.Potential GDP :the level of GDP attained when all firms are producing at capacity.Production Possibility Frontier (PPF) shifts outward.,Production and Growth生產與增長,In the United States over the pas

4、t century, average income as measured by real GDP per person has grown by about 2 percent per year.在美國過去一個世紀里，按人均實際GDP衡量的平均收入每年增長2％左右。1978-2006:我國GDP年均實際增長率為9.6%2012:我國實際GDP增長7.8%,表1. 不同的增長經歷,Copyright©2004 Sout

5、h-Western,國別 時期 期初人均GDP 期末人均GDP 增長率（每年）,,日本 1890～2008 1540美元 35200美元 2.71％ 巴西 1900～2008 779 10070

6、 2.40 墨西哥 1900～2008 1159 14270 2.35 德國 1870～2008 2184 35940 2.05 加拿大 1870～2008 2375

7、 36220 1.99 中國 1900～2008 716 6020 1.99 美國 1870～2008 4007 46970 1.80 阿根廷

8、 1900～2008 2293 14020 1.69 英國 1870～2008 4080 36130 1.47 印度 1900～2008 675 296

9、0 1.38 印度尼西亞 1900～2008 891 3830 1.36巴基斯坦 1900～2008 737 2700 1.21 孟加拉國 1900~2008 62

10、3 1440 0.78,Calculating Growth Rate,The Growth Rate of GDP during a particular year.For longer periods of time, we can use average annual growth rate.For longer periods of time, we get

11、 approximately the same answer by averaging growth rate for each year.,Compounding and the Rule of 70復利計算與70規(guī)則的魔力,According to the rule of 70, if some variable grows at a rate of x percent per year, then that variable

12、doubles in approximately 70/x years.根據70規(guī)則，如果某個變量每年按x%增長，那么在將近70/x年以后該變量翻一番。Number of years to double=70/Growth Rate,An Example of the Rule of 70,$5,000 invested at 7 percent interest per year, will double in size in 1

13、0 years 70/ 7 = 10,70規(guī)則的一個例子,每年利率為7％的5000美元投資在10年后的價值翻一番。70/ 7 = 10,20世紀90年代之前，印度的收入每50年翻一番，而韓國每10年翻一番。平均來說，一個印度人的收入將是他祖父的兩倍，而一個韓國人的收入將是他祖父的32倍……我無法想象一個人看到這些數(shù)字時不會認為其代表了巨大的可能性。印度政府是否能采取某

14、些行動使印度的經濟像印度尼西亞和埃及的經濟那樣增長？如果能，那么應該采取哪些政策呢？如果不能，那么到底是哪些‘印度的特性’使其無法這么做呢？這些問題中間所包含的人類福利含義本身就是非常重要的：一旦我們開始思考這些問題，我們就發(fā)現(xiàn)很難再去思考其他問題___羅伯特?盧卡斯（Lucas, R.）在劍橋大學所作的“馬歇爾講座”上的講話,Economic Growth Around the World,Annual growth rates t

15、hat seem small become large when compounded for many years. Compounding refers to the accumulation of a growth rate over a period of time.,世界各國的經濟增長,看起來很小的增長率在許多年的復利計算之后變得很大。復利計算 是指在一個時期內的增長率的累積。,,Tips:Small differenc

16、e in growth rate are important.Why do growth rate matter?The benefit of an earlier start Example: Standard of living in China and Japan.The rich get richer,What determines how fast economics grow?,可以用柯布—道格拉斯生產函數(shù)說

17、明從生產率和要素投入增長兩個角度分析經濟增長的研究線路。 Q=A.Lα Kβ，其中Q為產量，L、K分別代表勞動和資本投入量，A為技術狀況， α、 β分別代表勞動和資本在生產過程中的產出彈性。(α+ β=1) 進行代數(shù)變換可得到： △Y/Y= α（△L/L）+ β （△K/K）+△A/A 它表明國民收入增長率可被分解為三個部分： 1、勞動要素投入量的增長率； 2、資本要素投入量的增長

18、率； 3、全要素生產率（total factor productivity，簡稱TFP）,Four Wheels of Economic Growth,The Factors of Production 生產要素Physical capital 物質資本Human capital 人力資本Natural resources

19、 自然資源Technological knowledge 技術知識,How Productivity Is Determined,Physical Capitalis a produced factor of production.It is an input into the production process that in the past was an output from the production

20、process.is the stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and services.Tools used to build or repair automobiles.Tools used to build furniture.Office buildings, schools, etc.,生產率是如何決定的,物質資本是生產出

21、來的生產要素。它是生產過程的投入，也是過去生產過程的產出。是用于生產物品與勞務的設備與建筑物的存量。用于生產或修理汽車的工具。用于生產家具的工具。辦公樓，學校等等…,How Productivity Is Determined,Human Capitalthe economist’s term for the knowledge and skills that workers acquire through educatio

22、n, training, and experience Like physical capital, human capital raises a nation’s ability to produce goods and services.,生產率是如何決定的,人力資本經濟學家用來指工人通過教育、培訓和經驗而獲得的知識和技能的一個術語。 和物質資本一樣，人力資本提高一個國家生產物品與勞務的能力。,How Productivity

23、 Is Determined,Natural Resourcesinputs used in production that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers, and mineral deposits.Renewable resources include trees and forests.Nonrenewable resources include petroleum

24、and coal.can be important but are not necessary for an economy to be highly productive in producing goods and services.,生產率是如何決定的,自然資源由自然界提供的用于生產物品與勞務的投入，如土地、河流和礦藏。可再生資源包括樹木和森林。不可再生資源包括石油和煤炭。可能是重要的，但它們并不是一個經濟體生產物品與勞

25、務中生產率高的必要條件。,How Productivity Is Determined,Technological Knowledgesociety’s understanding of the best ways to produce goods and services. Human capital refers to the resources expended transmitting this understanding

26、to the labor force.,生產率是如何決定的,技術知識社會對生產物品與勞務的最好方法的理解。 人力資本是指把這些理解傳遞給勞動力的資源消耗。,The Production Function 生產函數(shù),Economists often use a production function to describe the relationship between the quantity of inputs used in

27、 production and the quantity of output from production.經濟學家經常用生產函數(shù)來描述用于生產的投入量和生產的產出量之間的關系。,The Production Function,Y = A F(L, K, H, N) Y = quantity of outputA = available production technologyL = quantity of la

28、borK = quantity of physical capitalH = quantity of human capitalN = quantity of natural resourcesF( ) is a function that shows how the inputs are combined.,生產函數(shù),Y = A F(L, K, H, N) Y = 產出量A = 可得到的生產技術

29、L = 勞動量K = 物質資本量H = 人力資本量N = 自然資源量F( ) 是一個表示投入如何結合起來以生產 產出的函數(shù)。,The Production Function 生產函數(shù),A production function has constant returns to scale if, for any positive number x, 如果給定任何一個正數(shù)x，下式成立，則該生產函數(shù)的規(guī)模收益不

30、變。xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN)That is, a doubling of all inputs causes the amount of output to double as well. 這就是說，投入翻番就會使產出翻番。,The Production Function,Production functions with constant returns to scale have an inter

31、esting implication.Setting x = 1/L,Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)Where:Y/L = output per workerK/L = physical capital per workerH/L = human capital per workerN/L = natural resources per worker,生產函數(shù),規(guī)模收益不

32、變的生產函數(shù)有一個令人感興趣的含義。設 x = 1/L,Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)這里:Y/L = 每個工人的產量K/L = 每個工人的物質資本H/L = 每個工人的人力資本N/L = 每個工人的自然資源,The Production Function,The preceding equation says that productivity (Y/L) depends

33、 on physical capital per worker (K/L), human capital per worker (H/L), and natural resources per worker (N/L), as well as the state of technology, (A).,生產函數(shù),這個公式說明，生產率(Y/L)取決于每個工人的物質資本 (K/L)，每個工人的人力資本 (H/L)，每個工人的自然資源， (N

34、/L)，以及技術狀況 (A).,Diminishing Returns,As the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is called diminishing returns.Because of diminishing returns, an incre

35、ase in the saving rate leads to higher growth only for a while.,收益遞減,隨著資本存量的增加，從增加的一個單位資本中生產額外產量減少。這種特性被稱為收益遞減。因為收益遞減，儲蓄率增加所引起的更高的增長只是暫時的。,,,,K/L,Q/L,,,,V,,Steady state at V in the long run,,,K/L,Q/L,,,,,,,,V,V’,Technol

36、ogical change moves the steady state from V to V’,,Which is more important for economic growth: more capital or technological change?Technological change: The key to sustaining economic growth.,Making the connection,Try

37、 to find the reasons for the rapid economic growth of China over past three decades.,,Two factors: 1.The massive movement of workers from agriculture to manufacturing jobs. 2. The transformation of its economy int

38、o a market system.Which factor is more important?,改革以來中國經濟增長的源泉,Economic Growth and Public Policy經濟增長與公共政策,Governments can do many things to raise productivity and living standards.政府可以做很多事情來提高生產率和生活水平。,ECONOMIC GROWT

39、H AND PUBLIC POLICY,Government Policies That Raise Productivity and Living StandardsEncourage saving and investment.Encourage investment from abroadEncourage education and training.Establish secure property rights an

40、d maintain political stability.Promote free trade.Promote research and development.,經濟增長與公共政策,提高生產率和生活水平的政府政策鼓勵儲蓄和投資鼓勵來自國外的投資鼓勵教育和培訓建立完善的產權保護機制和政治穩(wěn)定促進自由貿易促進研究與開發(fā),The Importance of Saving and Investment 儲蓄與投資的重要性

41、,One way to raise future productivity is to invest more current resources in the production of capital.提高未來生產率的一種方法就是把更多現(xiàn)期資源投資于資本的生產。,Figure 1 Growth and Investment,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

42、,,,,,,,,,,,,,(,a,),,G,r,o,w,t,h,,R,a,t,e,,1,9,6,0,–,1991,(,b,),,I,n,v,e,s,t,m,e,n,t,,1,9,6,0,–,1991,South Korea,Singapore,Japan,Israel,Canada,Brazil,West Germany,Mexico,United Kingdom,Nigeria,United States,India,Banglade

43、sh,Chile,Rwanda,South Korea,Singapore,Japan,Israel,Canada,Brazil,West Germany,Mexico,United Kingdom,Nigeria,United States,India,Bangladesh,Chile,Rwanda,Investment (percent of GDP),Growth Rate (percent),0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,0,

44、10,20,30,40,,,(a) 1960-1991增長率,(b) 1960-1991投資,圖1. 增長與投資,Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect,As the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is cal

45、led diminishing returns.Because of diminishing returns, an increase in the saving rate leads to higher growth only for a while.,收益遞減與追趕效應,隨著資本存量的增加，從增加的一個單位資本中生產額外產量減少。這種特性被稱為收益遞減。因為收益遞減，儲蓄率增加所引起的更高的增長只是暫時的。,Diminishin

46、g Returns and the Catch-Up Effect 收益遞減與追趕效應,In the long run, the higher saving rate leads to a higher level of productivity and income, but not to higher growth in these areas.在長期中，高儲蓄率引起高水平的生產率和收入，但在這些變量中并沒有高增長。,Dimin

47、ishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect 收益遞減與追趕效應,The catch-up effect refers to the condition that, other things being equal, it is easier for a country to grow fast if it starts out relatively poor.追趕效應是指在其他條件相同的情況下，如果

48、一國開始時較窮，它要迅速增長是容易的。,Investment from Abroad來自國外的投資,Governments can increase capital accumulation and long-term economic growth by encouraging investment from foreign sources.政府可以通過鼓勵來自國外的投資來增加資本積累和長期的經濟增長。,Investment fr

49、om Abroad,Investment from abroad takes several forms:Foreign Direct InvestmentCapital investment owned and operated by a foreign entity.Foreign Portfolio InvestmentInvestments financed with foreign money but operated

50、 by domestic residents.,來自國外的投資,來自國外的投資采取幾種形式：外國直接投資由外國實體擁有并經營的資本投資。外國有價證券投資用外國貨幣籌資，但由國內居民經營的投資。,Education,For a country’s long-run growth, education is at least as important as investment in physical capital.In the

51、 United States, each year of schooling raises a person’s wage on average by about 10 percent.Thus, one way the government can enhance the standard of living is to provide schools and encourage the population to take adv

52、antage of them.,教育,教育對一個國家的長期經濟成功至少與物質資本投資同樣重要。在美國，每一年正規(guī)教育使人的平均收入增加10％左右。因此，政府可以提高生活水平的一種方法是提供良好的學校，并鼓勵人們利用這些學校。,Education 教育,An educated person might generate new ideas about how best to produce goods and services, w

53、hich in turn, might enter society’s pool of knowledge and provide an external benefit to others.一個受過教育的人會產生一些有關如何最好地生產物品與勞務的新思想，這些新思想進入社會知識寶庫，并給他人帶來外部效益。,Education 教育,One problem facing some poor countries is the brain

54、 drain--the emigration of many of the most highly educated workers to rich countries.一些貧窮國家面臨的一個問題是人才外流——許多受過最高教育的工人移民到富國。,Property Rights and Political Stability,Property rights refer to the ability of people to exerci

55、se authority over the resources they own.An economy-wide respect for property rights is an important prerequisite for the price system to work.It is necessary for investors to feel that their investments are secure.

56、,產權和政治穩(wěn)定,產權是指人們對其擁有的資源行使權力的能力。價格制度發(fā)生作用的一個重要前提是經濟中廣泛尊重產權。讓投資者感到他們的投資安全是必要的。,Making the connection,What explain rapid economic growth in Bostwana?The most important reason is the pro- growth policy of its government.,Fr

57、ee Trade,Trade is, in some ways, a type of technology.A country that eliminates trade restrictions will experience the same kind of economic growth that would occur after a major technological advance.,自由貿易,在某些方面，貿易是一種技

58、術。取消了貿易限制的國家將有重大技術進步以后出現(xiàn)的同類經濟增長。,Free Trade,Some countries engage in . . .. . . inward-orientated trade policies, avoiding interaction with other countries. . . . outward-orientated trade policies, encouraging inter

59、action with other countries.,自由貿易,一些國家實施 . . .. . . 內向型 貿易政策, 避免與世界其他國家相互交易。 . . . 外向型 貿易政策，鼓勵與其他國家相互交易。,Research and Development,The advance of technological knowledge has led to higher standards of living.Most tec

60、hnological advance comes from private research by firms and individual inventors.Government can encourage the development of new technologies through research grants, tax breaks, and the patent system.,研究與開發(fā),技術知識的進步帶來更高

61、的生活水平。大多數(shù)技術進步來自企業(yè)和個人所進行的私人研究。政府通過補貼、減稅和專利制度來鼓勵新技術的開發(fā)。,CASE STUDY: The Productivity Slowdown and Speedup,The causes of the changes in productivity growth are elusive.The slowdown cannot be traced to the factors of prod

62、uction that are most easily measured.Many economists attribute the slowdown and speedup in economic growth to changes in technology and the creation of new ideas.,案例研究:生產率增長放慢與加快,生產率增長變化的原因是捉摸不定的。這種生產率放慢不能追溯到那些最容易衡量的生產

63、要素。許多經濟學家把經濟增長快慢歸因于技術變革和新思想的創(chuàng)造。,Figure 2 The Growth in Real GDP Per Person,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Growth Rate,(percent,per year),1.0,1.5,2.0,2.5,3.0,3.5,4.0,1,8,7,0,–,1890,1,8,9,0,–,1910,1,9,1,0,–,1930,1,9,3,0,–,19

64、50,1,9,5,0,–,1970,1,9,7,0,–,1990,1,9,9,0,–,2000,0,增長率（每年百分比）,Population Growth 人口增長,Economists and other social scientists have long debated how population growth affects a society。 長期以來，經濟學家和其他社會學家一直爭論人口增長如何影響一個社會。,

65、Population Growth,Population growth interacts with other factors of production:Stretching natural resourcesDiluting the capital stockPromoting technological progress,人口增長,人口增長與其他生產要素相互作用:使自然資源量更加緊張稀釋了資本存量促進了技術進步,,馬

66、爾薩斯人口論： 人口增加規(guī)律導致人類永遠陷于貧困之中：一旦食物供給超過了維持生存水平，人口就會加速增長 只有通過戰(zhàn)爭、瘟疫、災難才能控制人口增長 人口增長是社會貧困的根由 依據是邊際報酬遞減：土地固定，人口增加，導致兩個級數(shù)：食物按算術級數(shù)增長，人口按幾何級數(shù)增長。 對在什么地方？ 人口增長過快限制了生活水平的提高 錯在什么地方？ 忽略了技術進步的作用。,,,,

67、,勞動,產量,,Summary,Economic prosperity, as measured by real GDP per person, varies substantially around the world.The average income of the world’s richest countries is more than ten times that in the world’s poorest count

68、ries.The standard of living in an economy depends on the economy’s ability to produce goods and services.,小結,按人均GDP衡量的經濟繁榮在世界各國差別很大。世界最富裕國家的平均收入是世界最貧窮國家的10倍以上。一國經濟的生活水平取決于該經濟生產物品與勞務的能力。,Summary,Productivity depends on