行業(yè)景氣度研究系列報(bào)告之一汽車(chē)，周期律動(dòng)，先知先覺(jué)

1、目錄開(kāi)篇：行業(yè)景氣度研究框架................................................................................................................................51、汽車(chē)時(shí)鐘的量化構(gòu)建..................................................................

2、..................................................................61.1、關(guān)注整車(chē)子行業(yè)景氣度...........................................................................................................................................

3、...61.2、單一景氣度指標(biāo)與行業(yè)指數(shù)收益相關(guān)性較弱.........................................................................................................81.3、汽車(chē)行業(yè)周期劃分：主動(dòng)補(bǔ)庫(kù)階段最具投資價(jià)值..............................................................

4、..................................91.4、量化劃分行業(yè)周期：平滑處理提高量化劃分準(zhǔn)確度..........................................................................................112、汽車(chē)行業(yè)景氣度影響因素梳理....................................................

5、.............................................................132.1、汽車(chē)行業(yè)景氣度影響因素分類(lèi)...............................................................................................................................132.2、宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)決定需

6、求，產(chǎn)品供給影響庫(kù)存...............................................................................................................142.3、共線(xiàn)性檢驗(yàn)：確定預(yù)測(cè)模型的解釋變量............................................................................

7、...................................173、行業(yè)事件研究：購(gòu)置稅減征政策.............................................................................................................183.1、歷史事件梳理：關(guān)注購(gòu)置稅減征政策....................................

8、...............................................................................183.2、事件影響顯著性檢驗(yàn)：購(gòu)置稅減征政策影響顯著..............................................................................................194、動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)模型構(gòu)建........

9、..............................................................................................................................204.1、動(dòng)態(tài)模型平均法（DMA）模型原理........................................................................

10、..............................................204.2、預(yù)測(cè)效果：DMA模型預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確度具有明顯優(yōu)勢(shì)................................................................................................214.3、疊加政策變量：DMA模型精度并無(wú)提升...........................

11、..................................................................................235、投資觀(guān)點(diǎn)：2019年1月大概率仍處于主動(dòng)去庫(kù)階段.........................................................................246、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示.............................

12、.........................................................................................................................24參考文獻(xiàn).............................................................................................

13、..................................................................25表目錄表目錄表1：汽車(chē)行業(yè)景氣度指標(biāo)......................................................................................................................................

14、.....................8表2：各景氣度指標(biāo)之間的相關(guān)系數(shù)..........................................................................................................................................9表3：汽車(chē)行業(yè)歷史周期劃分..............................

15、......................................................................................................................10表4：主觀(guān)劃分方式下，汽車(chē)行業(yè)各周期階段特征..............................................................................

16、..................................11表5：量化劃分方式下，汽車(chē)行業(yè)各周期階段特征...............................................................................................................12表6：汽車(chē)行業(yè)景氣度影響因素明細(xì)表................................

17、....................................................................................................14表7：車(chē)輛購(gòu)置稅減征政策一覽........................................................................................................

18、........................................18表8：購(gòu)置稅減征政策影響顯著性檢驗(yàn)....................................................................................................................................19表9：DMA模型外推預(yù)測(cè)精度統(tǒng)計(jì)...........

19、...............................................................................................................................21表10：疊加政策變量后，DMA模型外推預(yù)測(cè)精度統(tǒng)計(jì)..................................................................