電氣設(shè)備行業(yè)回歸產(chǎn)業(yè)本源，抓住升級(jí)紅利

1、目錄新能源車：全球電芯頭部效應(yīng)加強(qiáng)，電芯升級(jí)材料體系全面跟進(jìn)...................................3下游：全球禁售燃油車風(fēng)起，中國雙積分為后續(xù)發(fā)展助力.....................................3銷量：中國全年銷量預(yù)計(jì)輕松突破百萬輛..................................................4電芯：中日韓三國鼎立，韓國高鎳電池量產(chǎn)時(shí)點(diǎn)后

2、延.........................................6正極：高鎳趨勢(shì)臨近，壁壘提升將導(dǎo)致格局優(yōu)化...........................................13負(fù)極：負(fù)極格局穩(wěn)定，布局石墨化提升盈利...............................................16電解液：降價(jià)洗牌集中度提升，價(jià)格觸底預(yù)期向好.....................

3、....................17隔膜：濕法隔膜集中度提升，后續(xù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)仍然激烈...........................................18投資建議：鎖定電芯及材料龍頭，關(guān)注產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)及海外供應(yīng)鏈紅利............................19光伏：短期預(yù)期轉(zhuǎn)好機(jī)會(huì)再現(xiàn)，長(zhǎng)期把握技術(shù)升級(jí)主線..........................................20政策：預(yù)期

4、轉(zhuǎn)好，機(jī)會(huì)再現(xiàn)強(qiáng)烈看多.....................................................20裝機(jī)：國內(nèi)持續(xù)超預(yù)期，海外市場(chǎng)發(fā)展迅猛...............................................20價(jià)格：沖擊已過，未來看好高效單晶.....................................................21產(chǎn)能：優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)能大舉擴(kuò)張....

5、...........................................................23投資建議：關(guān)注各環(huán)節(jié)龍頭，強(qiáng)烈推薦硅料、單晶硅片與電池環(huán)節(jié)............................25風(fēng)電：配額與競(jìng)價(jià)開啟成長(zhǎng)新時(shí)代...........................................................27政策：政策落地，配額競(jìng)價(jià)時(shí)代開啟........

6、............................................27空間：破解棄風(fēng)與搶裝周期，行業(yè)重回成長(zhǎng)時(shí)代...........................................30價(jià)格：風(fēng)機(jī)招標(biāo)均價(jià)觸底回升，上游原材料見頂回落........................................32投資建議：關(guān)注下游中游龍頭，精選上游零部件......................

7、.....................32電力設(shè)備：特高壓帶來年超千億投資，電力設(shè)備重回景氣周期....................................34投資建議：推薦設(shè)備供應(yīng)商，長(zhǎng)期關(guān)注配網(wǎng)投資機(jī)會(huì)........................................34風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析...............................................................

8、..................35請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁的重要聲明圖表40：組件封裝成本占比增加............................................................23圖表41：預(yù)計(jì)未來組件價(jià)格將進(jìn)一步下降（元W）...........................................23圖表42：全球主要硅料產(chǎn)能統(tǒng)計(jì)（萬噸）........................

9、............................23圖表43：2018年19月硅料進(jìn)口情況（噸）..................................................24圖表44：全球單晶與多晶硅片產(chǎn)能（GW）..................................................24圖表45：全球硅片產(chǎn)能統(tǒng)計(jì)（GW）...........................

10、.............................24圖表46：中國主要PERC產(chǎn)能統(tǒng)計(jì)（GW）..................................................24圖表47：光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈技術(shù)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)圖........................................................25圖表48：配額制第三次征求意見稿約束性指標(biāo)折算風(fēng)電新增裝機(jī)量（假設(shè)非水電量缺口的一

11、半由風(fēng)電裝機(jī)滿足）.................................................................................28圖表49：全國風(fēng)電利用小時(shí)數(shù)與棄風(fēng)率......................................................28圖表50：此前紅六省最新棄風(fēng)率.......................................

12、.....................28圖表51：陸上風(fēng)電標(biāo)桿電價(jià)................................................................29圖表52：海上風(fēng)電標(biāo)桿電價(jià)................................................................29圖表53：海上風(fēng)電競(jìng)價(jià)價(jià)格與競(jìng)價(jià)得分圖....................

13、................................29圖表54：陸上風(fēng)電競(jìng)價(jià)價(jià)格與競(jìng)價(jià)得分圖....................................................29圖表55：十三五規(guī)劃海上風(fēng)電目標(biāo)..........................................................30圖表56：地方政府海上風(fēng)電規(guī)劃目標(biāo)....................

14、....................................30圖表57：中國風(fēng)電裝機(jī)歷史................................................................31圖表58：中國風(fēng)力發(fā)電量及占比............................................................31圖表59：季度公開招標(biāo)容量（GW）.........

15、...............................................31圖表60：金風(fēng)月度公開投標(biāo)均價(jià)（元kW）..................................................32圖表61：環(huán)氧樹脂與中厚板價(jià)格變化（元噸）.................................................32圖表62：風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈.................