2018年四季度策略展望估值低位，靜待修復(fù)性行情

1、正文目錄正文目錄一、市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)與內(nèi)外環(huán)境：內(nèi)外壓力致使估值下行...................................51.1市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)：三季度估值下行..................................................51.2國(guó)內(nèi)：嚴(yán)控地產(chǎn)與放松基建托底需求.........................................71.3海外：經(jīng)濟(jì)后周期與緊縮延續(xù)...........

2、....................................9二、市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)：靜待修復(fù)性行情..................................................112.1盈利短期有一定韌性......................................................112.1.1盈利向大市值公司集中趨勢(shì)明顯.............................1

3、12.1.2四季度A股主板盈利增速仍有韌性......................................122.2風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好可能有所改善....................................................132.2.1估值處于歷史低位顯示當(dāng)前是底部區(qū)域..................................132.2.2情緒指標(biāo)顯示風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好可能修復(fù)性回升............

4、......................142.3微觀(guān)資金面難有大的改善..................................................15三、行業(yè)配置：業(yè)績(jī)主線(xiàn)，均衡配置..............................................163.1從宏觀(guān)和估值角度選取金融、消費(fèi)等藍(lán)籌.....................................163.1.1宏

5、觀(guān)環(huán)境指向金融和消費(fèi)..............................................163.1.2估值和盈利匹配度角度篩選藍(lán)籌.........................................173.2歷史角度看反彈的領(lǐng)漲行業(yè).................................................18風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示..............................

6、........................................20圖42：年底解禁壓力上升......................................................16圖43：工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)增速回落對(duì)周期不利........................................16圖44：工業(yè)利潤(rùn)增速回落有利于消費(fèi)................................

7、............16圖45：信用利差上升顯著不利于周期............................................17圖46：信用利差上升對(duì)消費(fèi)有利................................................17圖47：銀行、房地產(chǎn)、家電等ROEPB較高......................................18圖48：食品飲料、銀行等每股盈利較

8、高..........................................18圖49：有色金屬產(chǎn)能周期指標(biāo)上行..............................................18圖50：國(guó)防軍工產(chǎn)能周期指標(biāo)企穩(wěn)..............................................18圖51：計(jì)算機(jī)產(chǎn)能周期指標(biāo)上行................................