銀行盈利能力外文翻譯—孟加拉銀行業(yè)盈利能力評(píng)估的面板數(shù)據(jù)分析（節(jié)選）

1、<p>　　字?jǐn)?shù)：英文2235單詞，12708字符；中文3980漢字</p><p>　　出處：MT Abedin,MM Dawan.A Panel Data Analysis for Evaluating the Profitability of the Banking Sector in Bangladesh[J]Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Re

2、search.2016,3(2):163-171</p><p><b>　　外文文獻(xiàn)：　</b></p><p>　　A Panel Data Analysis for Evaluating the Profitability of the Banking Sector in Bangladesh</p><p>　　Abstract Th

3、is study attempts to evaluate the profitability for a panel of 29 listed commercial banks of Bangladesh. Panel GMM approach along with Pooled OLS and Random Effect OLS has been applied to discover the impact of key facto

4、rs namely investment in government securities and shares, loan and advances, human resource, efficiency, and economy money supply growth on profitability using the data set from 2005- 2015 for each bank. The study has fo

5、und that loan and advances, human resource, effi</p><p>　　Keywords: Profitability, Commercial banks, Investment, Loan and advances, Human resource, Efficiency, Money supply growth, Panel GMM, Pooled OLS, Ran

6、dom effect OLS.</p><p>　　1.Introduction</p><p>　　A country's economic development largely depends on the banking sector. Banking sector accelerates the economic growth providing fund to busi

7、ness organization as and when necessary and performing other supporting activates such as payment mechanism, money transfer, assurance and guarantee in international trade, foreign exchange activities etc. In addition, c

8、ommercial banks collect scattered idle money and help depositors to earn from their idle money and also help shareholders to earn smart amo</p><p>　　It is inevitable for banks to have profitability to uphold

9、 continuing activities and for theirs shareholders to have nondiscriminatory returns and at the same time it is also important for managers because it assures more flexible capital ratios even in the setting of a dicey b

10、usiness environment. Amandeep (1999) has revealed that it is essential to keep reliability on the institution by shareholders, long term creditors, and management. In this fashion profitability aids to discern the financ

11、ia</p><p>　　Not an exception to generate profitability as a basic aim of a bank, it is also an important factor for the smooth running of a bank in today's competitive setting. It has a significant impac

12、t on the financial proficiency of the banks to drive the economic development. So to identify profit determinants, management can usually concentrate on it at the time of decision making to track the driving forces. The

13、efficiency argument for profit maximization outlines that corporations and their managers</p><p>　　Now a days, Banking sector of Bangladesh is exploring day by day. The total number of bank operation in Bang

14、ladesh was forty-seven in 2012 but in 2014 this number is fifty-six. Among these banks, thirty banks listed in Dhaka Stock Exchange. Among commercial banks, Islami Bank Bangladesh Limited is the best performing bank with

15、 asset base of about BDT 65242 Crore. Islami Bank Bangladesh Limited (IBBL) is one of first 1000 banks in the world (Source: Bangladesh Bank). IBBL enjoys highest average a</p><p>　　To answer this question,

16、this paper has tried to discover the key determinants that affect profitability of banking sector by using econometric tools and techniques. Since banks deal with the public money (mainly depositors), it is the duty of t

17、he banks to ensure the safety of the money. Due to banks' default or suboptimal performance, a bulk portion of depositors may lose their life time savings. Hence, a bad intention of public may work on the entire bank

18、ing sector or simply depositors may fee</p><p>　　2.Review of Literatures</p><p>　　Profitability of commercial banks is a function of several key factors. Most of the academicians and researchers

19、 are still inquisitive to detect those factors accurately. This section summarizes the core finding of previous literatures on determinants of profitability of commercial banks. In this regard, Samad (2015) has found ban

20、k specific factors such as loan-deposit ratio, loan-loss provision to total assets, equity capital to total assets, and operating expenses to total assets have signific</p><p>　　Different studies have confir

21、med that banks' profitability are affected several factors and most of the studies have used traditional and weak econometric tools and techniques (namely OLS) and small sample sizes. Due to inborn weakness in tradit

22、ional econometric tools and small sample sizes, the results of the previous studies are very mixed and still no one in Bangladesh has applied a panel GMM approach to find out the impact of key factors that usually affect

23、 banks' profitability. This paper i</p><p>　　3.Data Source and Descriptive Statistics</p><p>　　All data have been collected from annual reports of each banks from 2005-2015 except economy mo

24、ney supply growth (MSG). The data of net profit (NETP), investment in government securities and shares (INV), and loan and advances (LOAN) are expressed in million BDT. Banks' efficiency (REX) is a unit free measure.

25、 Broad money supply growth has been used as the economy money supply growth (MSG). The data of economy money supply growth has been collected from the World Bank Development Indicators. </p><p>　　From the de

26、scriptive statistics, it has been observed that stability of performance of most of the banks has outperformed the stability of the entire banking sector performance (in terms of coefficient of variation, 76.68%). Here,

27、the lower the coefficient of variation, the more stable a bank's performance. Islami Bank Bangladesh limited has experienced more stable performance during 2005-2015 (the lowest coefficient of variation of profit, 43

28、.69%). In terms of efficiency ( average profit to ave</p><p>　　4.Econometric Methodology</p><p>　　It has been found that money supply growth and loan and advances have significant positive impac

29、t on profitability of banks (suggested by Pooles OLS, Random Effect OLS, GMM-1, GMM-2, GMM-3, and GMM-4). Therefore, more loan and advances and economy money supply will scale up the profit of banks. Human resource has s

30、ignificant positive impact on profit (GMM-1, GMM-2, GMM-3, and GMM-4). Therefore, banks should increase the human resource in line with the increase in loan and advances. Investment ha</p><p>　　Estimation re

31、sults</p><p>　　Note: ***Significant at 1% level, **Significant at 5% level, *Significant at 10% level. There is no existence of serial correlation in all four GMM techniques. </p><p>　　5.Conclus

32、ion and Policy Implications</p><p>　　To get superior model fitness, a non-linear model (double log model) has been used in this study. In the estimated model, severe problem of multicollinearity has not been

33、 observed. To check the consistency in estimation, four separate GMMs (GMM-1, GMM-2, GMM-3, and GMM-4) along with Pooled OLS and Random Effect OLS have been used. In four GMMs, the impact of loan and advances, human reso

34、urce, and money supply growth on profit is consistent. From the estimated results from all techniques, it has </p><p><b>　　中文譯文：</b></p><p>　　孟加拉銀行業(yè)盈利能力評(píng)估的面板數(shù)據(jù)分析</p><p>

35、　　摘要 本研究試圖評(píng)估孟加拉國(guó)29家上市商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力。采用面板GMM方法和混合OLS、隨機(jī)效應(yīng)OLS，利用2005-2015年各銀行的數(shù)據(jù)集，發(fā)現(xiàn)關(guān)鍵因素的影響，即政府證券和股票投資、貸款和預(yù)付款、人力資源、效率和經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)盈利能力的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，貸款和預(yù)付款、人力資源、效率和經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)盈利能力具有顯著的正面影響，而政府證券和股票投資具有顯著的負(fù)面影響。因此，不同于政府證券和股票，更多的貸款和預(yù)付款、人力資源

36、、效率和經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)最終將提高銀行的盈利能力。</p><p>　　關(guān)鍵詞：盈利能力，商業(yè)銀行，投資，貸款和預(yù)付款，人力資源，效率，貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)，面板GMM方法，混合OLS模型，隨機(jī)效應(yīng)OLS模型。</p><p><b>　　1.簡(jiǎn)介</b></p><p>　　一個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展很大程度上取決于銀行業(yè)。銀行業(yè)加速經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，在必要時(shí)向企業(yè)

37、組織提供資金，并開(kāi)展支付工具、資金轉(zhuǎn)移、國(guó)際貿(mào)易中的擔(dān)保和保證、外匯活動(dòng)等其他支持性活動(dòng)。此外，商業(yè)銀行還收集零散的閑置資金，幫助儲(chǔ)戶從閑置資金中獲利，并幫助股東有效地利用資金。也就是說(shuō)，商業(yè)銀行從社會(huì)盈余單位積累分散的資金，并將這筆資金提供給赤字單位。因此，閑置資金被投資，社會(huì)資源得到合理利用。消費(fèi)貸款提高了生活水平。銀行的貨幣增殖活動(dòng)增加了經(jīng)濟(jì)中的貨幣供應(yīng)量。反過(guò)來(lái)，經(jīng)濟(jì)中的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)得到增加。中央銀行通過(guò)商業(yè)銀行實(shí)施其政策。因此，商

38、業(yè)銀行成為現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要組成部分。</p><p>　　銀行必須具有盈利能力才能維持持續(xù)的活動(dòng)，并讓股東獲得一視同仁的回報(bào)，同時(shí)，它對(duì)管理者也很重要，因?yàn)榧词故窃诿半U(xiǎn)的商業(yè)環(huán)境中，它也保證了更靈活的資本比率。Amandeep（1999）指出，保持股東、長(zhǎng)期債權(quán)人和管理層對(duì)機(jī)構(gòu)的可靠性至關(guān)重要。這種盈利能力有助于辨別銀行的財(cái)務(wù)狀況。因此，銀行應(yīng)該增加收入的絕對(duì)金額，提高其利潤(rùn)。作為銀行的生命線，盈利能力發(fā)揮著橋梁的

39、作用，通過(guò)向銀行提供額外的貸款支付工具，從而滿足其長(zhǎng)期和短期目標(biāo)。</p><p>　　創(chuàng)造盈利能力作為銀行的基本目標(biāo)并非例外，它也是銀行在當(dāng)今競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈的環(huán)境下順利運(yùn)營(yíng)的重要因素。它對(duì)銀行推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的財(cái)務(wù)能力有重大影響。因此，為了確定利潤(rùn)的決定因素，管理層通?？梢栽跊Q策時(shí)集中精力追蹤驅(qū)動(dòng)力。效益最大化的效率論概括了公司及其管理者應(yīng)該最大化利潤(rùn)，因?yàn)檫@是一個(gè)能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)“經(jīng)濟(jì)效益”或“福利最大化”結(jié)果的行動(dòng)方針（Je

40、nsen，2001；Jensen，2002）。</p><p>　　現(xiàn)在，孟加拉的銀行業(yè)正在日益探索。2012年孟加拉國(guó)的銀行總數(shù)為47家，但在2014年，這一數(shù)字變?yōu)?6家。在這些銀行中，有30家銀行在達(dá)卡證券交易所上市。在商業(yè)銀行中，孟加拉國(guó)伊斯蘭銀行有限公司是績(jī)效最佳的銀行，其資產(chǎn)基礎(chǔ)約為6524.2億塔卡。孟加拉國(guó)伊斯蘭銀行有限公司（IBBL）是世界上前1000家銀行之一（來(lái)源：孟加拉國(guó)銀行）。IBBL享

41、有最高的稅后凈利潤(rùn)、平均貸款和預(yù)付款、平均存款及其他、平均實(shí)收資本。忠誠(chéng)的客戶群體、忠誠(chéng)高效的工作隊(duì)伍、符合道德規(guī)范的內(nèi)部運(yùn)作流程、人們基于伊斯蘭教對(duì)其運(yùn)作的看法，都是IBBL成功的基石。此外，商業(yè)銀行的貸款和預(yù)付款基數(shù)在逐步擴(kuò)大（來(lái)源：孟加拉國(guó)銀行）。由于貸款和預(yù)付款的高增長(zhǎng)，以及股票和政府證券的投資、人力資源的增加，通常會(huì)出現(xiàn)一個(gè)問(wèn)題，即銀行的最佳績(jī)效是否與貸款和預(yù)付款的高增長(zhǎng)、政府證券和股票投資以及人力資源的增加有關(guān)？</p

42、><p>　　為了回答這個(gè)問(wèn)題，本文試圖通過(guò)計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)工具和技術(shù)來(lái)發(fā)現(xiàn)影響銀行業(yè)盈利能力的關(guān)鍵決定因素。由于銀行處理公共資金（主要是儲(chǔ)戶），銀行有責(zé)任確保資金的安全。由于銀行違約或績(jī)效欠佳，大部分儲(chǔ)戶都有可能會(huì)失去他們的終身儲(chǔ)蓄。因此，公眾的不良意圖可能會(huì)影響整個(gè)銀行業(yè)，或者只是儲(chǔ)戶對(duì)把錢存在銀行里而感到不安全。因此，本文將更具體地向公眾傳達(dá)一個(gè)信息，即在銀行存錢是否比較安全？銀行是否從他們的主要資金來(lái)源（貸款和預(yù)付

43、款）中獲得利潤(rùn)，以返還儲(chǔ)戶的資金和聲稱的回報(bào)？本文的結(jié)構(gòu)如下，第一部分：導(dǎo)論，第二部分：文獻(xiàn)綜述，第三部分：數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源和描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)，第四部分：計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法，第五部分：結(jié)論。</p><p><b>　　2.文獻(xiàn)綜述</b></p><p>　　商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力是幾個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素的作用。大多數(shù)學(xué)者和研究人員仍然對(duì)準(zhǔn)確地發(fā)現(xiàn)這些因素感到好奇。本部分總結(jié)了以往文獻(xiàn)中關(guān)于商業(yè)銀

44、行盈利能力決定因素的核心發(fā)現(xiàn)。在這方面，Samad（2015）發(fā)現(xiàn)，銀行的具體因素，如貸款與存款比率、貸款損失準(zhǔn)備金占總資產(chǎn)比重、權(quán)益資本占總資產(chǎn)比重，以及運(yùn)營(yíng)支出占總資產(chǎn)比重，都對(duì)以資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率(ROA)衡量的盈利能力有顯著影響。作為宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的銀行規(guī)模和GDP對(duì)盈利能力（ROA）沒(méi)有影響。Islam（2010）采用普通最小二乘法（OLS），研究了銀行規(guī)模（以總資產(chǎn)、總貸款和總存款計(jì)量）對(duì)銀行利潤(rùn)績(jī)效的影響，發(fā)現(xiàn)在孟加拉國(guó)銀行規(guī)模和銀

45、行盈利能力呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系。Munyambonera（2013）發(fā)現(xiàn)，資本充足率（合格資本/總風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)）、信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（銀行存款增長(zhǎng)）和通貨膨脹對(duì)以平均資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率（ROAA）衡量的盈利能力有積極和顯著的影響；運(yùn)營(yíng)效率（成本/收入）、流動(dòng)比率（凈貸款/總資產(chǎn)）、GDP增長(zhǎng)對(duì)平均資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率（ROAA）有消極和顯著的影響。Ali（2016）指出，財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（總負(fù)債/總資產(chǎn)）、負(fù)債比率（負(fù)債/權(quán)益）、資產(chǎn)管理（營(yíng)業(yè)收入/總資產(chǎn)）、銀行規(guī)模（總計(jì)<

46、;/p><p>　　不同的研究已經(jīng)證實(shí)，銀行的盈利能力受到多種因素的影響，大多數(shù)研究都采用了傳統(tǒng)和薄弱的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)工具和技術(shù)（即OLS）和小樣本量。由于傳統(tǒng)計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)工具和小樣本量的先天弱點(diǎn)，以前的研究結(jié)果非常復(fù)雜，孟加拉國(guó)仍然沒(méi)有人應(yīng)用面板GMM方法來(lái)找出通常影響銀行盈利能力的關(guān)鍵因素的影響。在這方面，本文將采用現(xiàn)代計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)工具 (面板GMM)， 來(lái)彌補(bǔ)傳統(tǒng)計(jì)量工具中先天缺陷的不足之處，并且作為孟加拉國(guó)首次基于面

47、板GMM進(jìn)行的綜合性研究，必將對(duì)現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)做出杰出貢獻(xiàn)。</p><p>　　3.數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源和描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)</p><p>　　除經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)（MSG）外，所有數(shù)據(jù)均從各家銀行2005-2015年的年度報(bào)告中收集。凈利潤(rùn)（NETP）、政府證券和股票投資（INV），以及貸款和預(yù)付款（LOAN）的數(shù)據(jù)以百萬(wàn)塔卡（BDT）表示。銀行效率（REX）是一個(gè)單位自由度量。廣義的貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)被用作經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣

48、供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)（MSG）。經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自世界銀行發(fā)展指標(biāo)。</p><p>　　從描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)中可以看出，大多數(shù)銀行的績(jī)效穩(wěn)定性超過(guò)了整個(gè)銀行業(yè)的績(jī)效穩(wěn)定性（變異系數(shù)為76.68％）。在這里，變異系數(shù)越低，銀行的績(jī)效就越穩(wěn)定。孟加拉國(guó)伊斯蘭銀行有限公司在2005-2015年期間績(jī)效表現(xiàn)更為穩(wěn)定（利潤(rùn)變異系數(shù)最低，為43.69％）。在效率方面（貸款和預(yù)付款的平均利潤(rùn)），Uttara銀行（2.20％）、Sta

49、ndard銀行（1.97％）、South East銀行（2.11％）、Shahjalal Islami銀行（1.84％）、Pubali銀行2.19％）、Jamuna銀行（1.95％）、NCC銀行（2.06％）、ONE銀行（2.26％）、EXIM銀行（1.82％）、National銀行（2.93％）、United Commercial銀行（1.98％）、Prime銀行（2.14％）、City銀行（1.88％）、Dutch Bangla銀行

50、（2.14％）、Eastern銀行（2.38％）、Dhaka銀行（1.80％）和Asia銀行（1.89％）的績(jī)效超過(guò)整個(gè)銀行業(yè)的績(jī)效（1.76％）。在2005-2015年期間，Eastern銀行的績(jī)效效率最高（最高平均利潤(rùn)與貸款和</p><p><b>　　4.計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法</b></p><p>　　研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)、貸款和預(yù)付款對(duì)銀行的盈利能力具有顯著的

51、正面影響（通過(guò)混合OLS、隨機(jī)效應(yīng)OLS、GMM-1、GMM-2、GMM-3和GMM-4得出）。因此，更多的貸款和預(yù)付款以及經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣供應(yīng)將會(huì)增加銀行的利潤(rùn)。人力資源對(duì)利潤(rùn)有顯著的正面影響（GMM-1、GMM-2、GMM-3和GMM-4）。因此，銀行應(yīng)該根據(jù)貸款和預(yù)付款的增加而增加人力資源。投資對(duì)利潤(rùn)有負(fù)面影響（GMM-1和GMM-2）。因此，銀行應(yīng)該控制對(duì)股票和政府證券的投資以獲得更多的利潤(rùn)。銀行效率的改善最終將提高盈利能力（混合OLS

52、、隨機(jī)效應(yīng)OLS、GMM-1和GMM-2）。</p><p><b>　　估計(jì)結(jié)果</b></p><p>　　注：***表示在1％時(shí)水平顯著，**表示在5％時(shí)水平顯著，*表示在10％時(shí)水平顯著。在所有四種GMM技術(shù)中不存在序列相關(guān)性。 </p><p><b>　　5.結(jié)論和政策啟示</b></p><

53、;p>　　為了獲得更好的模型適應(yīng)性，本研究中使用了非線性模型（雙對(duì)數(shù)模型）。在估計(jì)模型中，尚未觀察到嚴(yán)重的多重共線性問(wèn)題。為了檢驗(yàn)估計(jì)的一致性，使用了四個(gè)獨(dú)立的GMM（GMM-1，GMM-2，GMM-3和GMM-4）以及混合OLS和隨機(jī)效應(yīng)OLS。在四個(gè)GMM中，貸款和預(yù)付款、人力資源和貨幣供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)利潤(rùn)的影響是一致的。從所有技術(shù)的估計(jì)結(jié)果來(lái)看，內(nèi)部因素（股票和政府證券投資、貸款和預(yù)付款、人力資源、效率）和外部因素（如經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣供應(yīng)