電力系統(tǒng)概率潮流新算法及其應(yīng)用.pdf

1、華北電力大學(xué)（北京）碩士學(xué)位論文電力系統(tǒng)概率潮流新算法及其應(yīng)用姓名：戴小青申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：電力系統(tǒng)及其自動(dòng)化指導(dǎo)教師：董雷20060501華北電力大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文摘要概率潮流計(jì)算是電力系統(tǒng)分析的一項(xiàng)重要內(nèi)容，有助于對(duì)整個(gè)電網(wǎng)在各種運(yùn)行條件下的性能有一個(gè)全面、綜合的評(píng)價(jià)，并對(duì)電網(wǎng)存在的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)做出量化分析，這些信息對(duì)規(guī)劃和調(diào)度部門的決策極具參考價(jià)值。在，電力市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下也有其特殊的研究和應(yīng)用價(jià)值。本文提出的結(jié)合半不變量和GramCh

2、arlier展開級(jí)數(shù)的方法可以快速且準(zhǔn)確地計(jì)算支路潮流的概率密度函數(shù)(PDF)和累積分布函數(shù)(CDF)。在數(shù)學(xué)模型上采用線性化的交流模型。應(yīng)用概率的基本理論和方法求得支路潮流的低階的半不變量，采用GramCharlier展開級(jí)數(shù)就可足夠精確地估計(jì)支路潮流的PDF和CDF，從而大大的減少計(jì)算量和計(jì)算所需要的存儲(chǔ)空間。最后，采用一個(gè)典型的算例系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行仿真計(jì)算，與MonteCarlo(蒙特卡羅)模擬仿真方法比較，結(jié)果證明了混合使用半不變量和G

3、ramCharlier展開級(jí)數(shù)的方法具有足夠的準(zhǔn)確性和快速性。關(guān)鍵詞：概率潮流計(jì)算，半不變量，GramCharlier展開級(jí)數(shù)，累積分布函數(shù)，電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃ABSTRACTThecomputationofprobabilisticloadflOWiSallimportantcontentintheelectricalpowersystemanalysis，anditishelpfultogetacomprehensiveappraisalfo

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