南海上層環(huán)流季節(jié)和年際變化特征及主流區(qū)可預(yù)報(bào)性初探.pdf

1、目錄目錄mmiABSTRACTII第一章前言11.1南海的基本概況11.2EOF方法的發(fā)展21.3南海上層環(huán)流的研究現(xiàn)狀41.4南海主流區(qū)的可預(yù)報(bào)性研究進(jìn)展41.5本文的主要研究意義和內(nèi)容5第二章EININO事件期間南海環(huán)流的異常特征72.1引言72.2流函數(shù)場(chǎng)分析南海上層環(huán)流季節(jié)和年際變化82.3M(jìn)VEOF分析南海上層環(huán)流季節(jié)和年際變化152.422第三章南海主流區(qū)上層流的可預(yù)報(bào)性233.1mm23

2、3.2資料介紹253.3基于Lagrangian方法追蹤Argos浮標(biāo)263.4動(dòng)態(tài)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)判斷預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)度293.5h(yuǎn)^35第四章南海上層環(huán)流的數(shù)值模擬374.1引言374.2POM模式介紹384.3南海區(qū)域模式設(shè)置454.4POM模式數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果分析474.5^50第五章總結(jié)與展望513.13^1.......眷.暑■■■.■■515.2展望5355SCm60入■61Abstract

3、AbstractTheSouthChinaSea(SCS)circulationsystemisacterizedofmutitempalandspatialscalesseasonalreversals.Itsdynamicandthermodynamicprocessesplayacriticalroleintransptingenergysubstancesaswellasindrivingtheprocessesofmarine

4、biologymarinechemistrymarinegeologyintheSCS.TherefethestudyoftheuppercirculationintheSCSisofgreatimptance.ThispapermainlyanalyzesanomalousacteristicsoftheoceancirculationintheSCSduringEINinoeventsanddeterminesthepredicta

5、bilityoftheupperflowinthemainstreamregionthenachievesthenumericalsimulationoftheuppercirculationintheSCS.UsingtheMVEOFthestreamfunctionweanalyzetheuppercirculationintheSCSbasedonthemonthlyCORAreanalysisdatafrom19862008.I

6、nsteadofusingtheresultsfromtheMVEOFdirectlywetakethepositivetimecoefficientsofthefirsttwomodeswhichhaverealphysicalmeaningrestructurethemintoanewmode.Comparingtothepreviousthismethodismeintuitiveandeasiertooperatemeimpta

7、ntlyitcanbeuseddirectlytoanalyzetheseasonalinterannualvariabilityoftheuppercirculationintheSCS.WedesignaLagrangiantrackingwithdynamiccriteriaitcanextendtheapplicationareaoftheLagrangiantracking.Thedynamiccriteriacanbeapp

8、liedintheregionofsuddenflowchangeaswellastheregionofstableflow.BasedontheLagrangiantrackingtracksthediurnalvariationsoftheSCScirculationamongthetrackingresultsbasedonthreeassimilationdatasets:CORA、HYCOMAIPOwecomparetopoi

9、ntouttheadvantageofeachdatasetinthesimulationwithdynamiccriteria.Thenweextractthehigherpredictionvaluesfromthethreemodelsrefmintoacomprehensiveflowfieldbywhichwecanimprovethetrackingabilityinstrongcurrentregion.Basedonth

10、eiginalPOMoceanmodelwesetupanthogonalcurvilinearcodinateofahighresolutionPOMmodelcoveringtheSCSandthewesternPacificOcean.ThisdesignachievesthenumericalsimulationoftheuppercirculationintheSCS.Comparingtotheobservationspre

11、viousstudieswefindthatthePOMmodelwiththeboundaryconditionsusedinthisstudycanwellsimulatethecirculationstructureanditstimeevolutioninseasonalandinterannualscaleintheSCS.KeywdsMVEOFPOMmodelLagrangiantrackingtheSouthChinaSe