概率理論與隨機數(shù)值模擬方法在海岸泥沙淤積預測中的應用.pdf

1、中國海洋大學碩士學位論文概率理論與隨機數(shù)值模擬方法在海岸泥沙淤積預測中的應用姓名：張明霞申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：港口、海岸及近海工程指導教師：劉德輔20040601TheprobabiIitytheoryandstochastiCnumericasimuIationmethodanditsappIicationinthesedimentationpredictionAbstractInthenumericalmodelusedforca

2、lculatingtheseaenvironmentsandsedimentationathomeandabroadthereisnumerousuncertaintyinthecourseofdebuggingtheinputdata，determiningexperiencecoefficients，choosingthefielddata(windspeed，waveheightandSOon)andarrangingtheout

3、putdataThisthesisanalyzestheuncertaintyandsensitivityofthewindspeedthatiStheinputdataofthenumericalmodelapplyingtheexistingwavecurrentsedimentationnumericalsimulationmodelasthecomputationaltoolDi骶rentdataofthesedimentati

4、ondepthareobtainedbyinputtingdifferentwindspeed，whicharepredictedbyGumbeldistributionUsingthe“stochasticsinmlationtechniquewithnon—Guassianmultivariaterandomvariables’’thedissertationpredictsthesuddensedimentationwithvar

5、iousriskprobabilityand1ifetimeofstructuresThejobofthisthesisincludesthefollowingcontentmainly：奪Applyingtheexistingwave—current—sedimentationnumericalsimulationmodelasthecomputationalt00l，regardnorthernharbourHuanghuaport

6、astheinstancetoanalyzetheuncertaintyandsensitivityofthewindspeedthatiStheinputdataof。thenumericalmodelDifferentdataofthesedimentationdepthareobtainedbyinputtingdifierentwindspeed，andthedataofthesedimentationdeptharepredi

7、ctedbyGumbeldistribution奪Consideringtheserious”suddensedimentation”phenomenonafterastrongwindofHuanghuaport，theeffectivewaveenergyareproposedtocalculatetheeffectivewaveenergyaftereachstormfrom1991to2001Thesedimentationam

8、ountaftereachstrongwindiSputoutwithrelationsofwaveenergyandsedimentationProbabilityanalysisofthesuddensedimentationandyearlysedimentationarecarriedon，whicharesuitableforthedecisionmakinginplanninganddesigningotcoastaleng

9、ineering奪Usingthe“stochasticsimulationtechniquewithnonGuassiallmultivariaterandomvariables”，thesuddensedimentationwithvariousriskprobabilityandlifetimeispredictedKeywords：ProbabiIitytheorystochastiCrlumericaISimuIationme