外文翻譯---不斷變化的世界紡織品服裝貿(mào)易格局

1、<p>　　The Changing World Network of Trade in Textiles and Apparel</p><p>　　Thomas Vollrath，Mark Gehlhar，Stephen MacDonald</p><p><b>　　U.S.A.</b></p><p>　　http://www

2、.ers.usda.gov/amberwaves</p><p>　　Thomas Vollrath, thomasv@ers.usda.gov</p><p>　　Mark Gehlhar, mgehlhar@ers.usda.gov</p><p>　　Stephen MacDonald, stephenm@ers.usda.gov</p><

3、;p>　　The structure of the global textile market is fundamentally changing in response to policy reforms stemming from the 1995 Uruguay Round (UR) of the World Trade Organization. The UR instituted agreements to reduce

4、 tariffs on textile and apparel products to levels closer to those found elsewhere in manufacturing. It also established the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC), which stipulates that all bilateral import quotas, sa

5、nctioned under the 1974 Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA), will be elimi</p><p>　　The Bilateral Fiber and Textile Trade database, available on the ERS website (www.ers.usda.gov/data/fibertextiletrade/), enables

6、analysts to examine the evolving structure of trade among partners and across commodities and products in the global market. This database, derived from UN Comtrade data, contains information about commodity and product

7、trade flows among exporting and importing countries/regions between 1992 and 2002.</p><p>　　The global network of trade in textiles and apparel has shifted significantly, with many low-income countries benef

8、iting from higher sales within the past decade. Unlike agricultural production, which depends on the availability of natural resources, the location of textile and, particularly, apparel production is highly mobile and e

9、xtremely responsive to wage differentials. Textile and apparel production requires substantial labor, is not technologically demanding, and provides employment oppor</p><p>　　Competition from low-cost suppli

10、ers in developing countries has put considerable pressure on established exporters of textiles and apparel, particularly those in the newly industrialized countries (NIC) of Asia (Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, South Korea

11、, and Taiwan). The Asian-NIC share of the global textile and apparel market halved, falling from 24 to 12 percent between 1992 and 2002. In contrast, the market share of developing-country suppliers, excluding the Asian

12、NICs, increased 15 percentag</p><p>　　Textile and apparel trade is strongly influenced by established networks and geographical proximity. Together, Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe dominate the E

13、U market because of preferential trading agreements and the economics of geographical location. In contrast, the most important suppliers to the United States are Latin America, China, and the Asian NICs. With improved m

14、arket access from the ATC, low-income Asian producers are likely to vie more effectively with these traditional</p><p>　　The UR reforms are expected to reduce prices for textiles and apparel, increasing worl

15、dwide demand for products throughout the fiber-to-clothing supply chain. Demand for textile and apparel imports is already rising rapidly among the industrialized countries (IC). This demand is particularly strong among

16、importers using MFA quotas (Canada, EU, Norway, and the United States). As consumer prices fall due to ATC reforms, imports of clothing, bed linen, carpets, and other products are likely to cont</p><p>　　不斷變

17、化的世界紡織品服裝貿(mào)易格局</p><p>　　托馬斯·瓦拉斯，馬克·葛赫哈，史蒂芬·麥克通納德</p><p><b>　　美國(guó)</b></p><p>　　http://www.ers.usda.gov/amberwaves</p><p>　　托馬斯·瓦拉斯，thomasv@

18、ers.usda.gov</p><p>　　馬克·葛赫哈，mgehlhar@ers.usda.gov</p><p>　　史蒂芬·麥克通納德，stephenm@ers.usda.gov</p><p>　　全球紡織品市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)是根據(jù)1995年世界貿(mào)易組織舉行的烏拉圭回合的政策改革而發(fā)生著根本性的變化。烏拉圭回合提議將紡織品和服裝產(chǎn)品的關(guān)稅降低到與

19、這些生產(chǎn)國(guó)的關(guān)稅比較接近的水平。它同樣確立了紡織品與服裝協(xié)定（ATC），ATC是保證在1974年多種纖維協(xié)定（MFA）下制定的所有的雙邊進(jìn)口配額將會(huì)在2005年被取消。烏拉圭回合改革的全部實(shí)現(xiàn)將使得紡織品和服裝與國(guó)際上公認(rèn)的貿(mào)易規(guī)則更加地一致?？偟膩?lái)說(shuō),這些改革應(yīng)該促進(jìn)紡織品貿(mào)易的增長(zhǎng)，這種增長(zhǎng)會(huì)超過(guò)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體中其它部門(mén)貿(mào)易的增長(zhǎng)。譬如，紡織品和服裝貿(mào)易在過(guò)去的十年中幾乎翻了一倍達(dá)到3340億美元。這些改革同樣預(yù)示著纖維和紡織品貿(mào)易的生

20、產(chǎn)地點(diǎn)和方向?qū)?huì)發(fā)生重大改變。</p><p>　　ERS網(wǎng)站（www.ers.usda.gov/data/fibertextiletrade/）提供的雙邊纖維和紡織品貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，能使分析家了解全球市場(chǎng)中合作伙伴之間和跨商品和產(chǎn)品之間正在演進(jìn)的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)。這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，來(lái)源于聯(lián)合國(guó)的Comtrade數(shù)據(jù)，它包括出口和進(jìn)口國(guó)家/地區(qū)在1992年到2002年之間的有關(guān)商品和產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易流的信息。</p><

21、;p>　　紡織品和服裝貿(mào)易的全球格局已經(jīng)發(fā)生了重大的變化，同時(shí)在過(guò)去的十年間許多低收入國(guó)家從更大的貿(mào)易銷售中獲利。與依賴自然資源稟賦的農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)品不同，紡織品生產(chǎn)的地點(diǎn)，特別是，服裝的生產(chǎn)地點(diǎn)由于工資的差異在不斷地轉(zhuǎn)移。紡織品和服裝的生產(chǎn)需要大量的勞動(dòng)力，這種生產(chǎn)并不是技術(shù)性的生產(chǎn)需求，而是為大量從農(nóng)業(yè)中轉(zhuǎn)移出來(lái)的相對(duì)缺乏技術(shù)能力的勞動(dòng)者提供就業(yè)的機(jī)會(huì)。它使工人們學(xué)會(huì)生產(chǎn)制造，并且提供給他們?cè)谛碌牟⑶疑a(chǎn)效率不斷提高的領(lǐng)域內(nèi)培訓(xùn)的機(jī)會(huì)

22、。</p><p>　　不斷變化的全球紡織品和服裝出口國(guó)格局</p><p>　　來(lái)自發(fā)展中國(guó)家低成本供給的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)已經(jīng)給原有的紡織品和服裝的出口國(guó)施加了相當(dāng)大的壓力，特別是對(duì)于那些亞洲的新興工業(yè)化國(guó)家（香港、澳門(mén)、新加坡、韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣）。亞洲新興工業(yè)化國(guó)家在全球紡織品和服裝市場(chǎng)所占的份額減少了一半，從1992年的24%下降到2002年的12%。相反，除亞洲新興工業(yè)化國(guó)家以外，發(fā)展中國(guó)家的供應(yīng)商

23、所占的市場(chǎng)份額在這段時(shí)期內(nèi)增加了15%達(dá)到了64%。其中中國(guó)取得了顯著的進(jìn)步，在2002年所占全球的市場(chǎng)份額高達(dá)25%，比1992年上升了4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。來(lái)自低生產(chǎn)成本、發(fā)展中國(guó)家供應(yīng)商的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力可能會(huì)加速多種纖維協(xié)定所要求的在2005年完成配額的取消。</p><p>　　正在變化的格局：一些供應(yīng)商正在失去市場(chǎng)份額而另一些供應(yīng)商正在增加他們的市場(chǎng)份額</p><p>　　紡織品和服裝貿(mào)易很容

24、易受已確定的格局和相鄰的地理?xiàng)l件的影響。譬如，非洲、中東和東歐在歐盟市場(chǎng)上占主導(dǎo)地位，是因?yàn)樘鼗葙Q(mào)易協(xié)定和地理分布的經(jīng)濟(jì)性。相反，美國(guó)最重要的進(jìn)口來(lái)源國(guó)是拉丁美洲國(guó)家，中國(guó)和亞洲的工業(yè)化國(guó)家。隨著紡織品與服裝協(xié)定下市場(chǎng)的不斷擴(kuò)大，亞洲的低收入生產(chǎn)商可能和那些傳統(tǒng)的供應(yīng)商在美國(guó)和歐盟市場(chǎng)上展開(kāi)更加有效的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)來(lái)爭(zhēng)奪這些國(guó)家的市場(chǎng)份額。</p><p>　　人們希望烏拉圭回合的改革能降低紡織品和服裝的價(jià)格，通過(guò)纖維服裝

25、供應(yīng)鏈來(lái)增加全球?qū)@些產(chǎn)品的需求。在工業(yè)化國(guó)家中對(duì)紡織品和服裝進(jìn)口的需求在快速地增長(zhǎng)。這種需求的增長(zhǎng)在使用多種纖維協(xié)定規(guī)定下的配額制的進(jìn)口國(guó)（加拿大、歐盟、挪威和美國(guó)）中表現(xiàn)地非常明顯。由于紡織品與服裝協(xié)定的改革使得消費(fèi)者的價(jià)格下降，服裝、床上亞麻紡織品、地毯和其他產(chǎn)品的進(jìn)口很可能繼續(xù)增加。紡織品和服裝的供給和需求潛在的變化將要提高發(fā)展中國(guó)家的勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)效率，促進(jìn)收入的增長(zhǎng)和全球農(nóng)產(chǎn)品需求的擴(kuò)大，這些農(nóng)產(chǎn)品包括食物和纖維原材料，比如棉花。

26、</p><p>　　Trade liberalization and patterns of strategic</p><p>　　adjustment in the US textiles and clothing industry</p><p>　　Belay Seyoum</p><p><b>　　U.S.A.<

27、/b></p><p>　　International Business Review，Issue 16 ,2007</p><p>　　Belay Seyoum</p><p>　　Nova Southeastern University, 3301 College Avenue, Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33314, USA</p>

28、;<p>　　Received 2 December 2005; received in revised form 17 April 2006, 11 October 2006, 23 November 2006; accepted13 December 2006</p><p>　　The overall environment facing the US TC industry will be

29、one of rapidly changing market conditions and technological innovation. With the phase out of quotas and growing number of trade agreements, the US TC industry is being exposed to intense competition in export and domest

30、ic markets. This is likely to lead domestic industries/labor to demand intervention by national governments to mitigate the adverse impact of trade liberalization (Standbury & Vertinksy, 2004).</p><p>　　

31、In spite of the substantial job losses, the US TC industry remains technologically advanced partly due to increased productivity resulting from advances in technology and design capabilities. Textile production is capita

32、l intensive and modern technology is essential to meet the increasing for high-quality products. Over the last few years, US textiles and apparel firms have substantially increased their investment to maintain modern man

33、ufacturing facilities as well as improve production and mark</p><p>　　An important survival tool for US TC firms is to expand their potential market by offering new product designs and product categories. Ma

34、nufacturers must try to bring a steady stream of products to market that are in line with the taste, preferences of the consumer. They can also expand their market potential by offering new product categories. Two of the

35、 fastest growing apparel segments in the US, for example, have been the women’s plus and men’s big and tall segments (Driscoll, 2004). Plus-siz</p><p>　　US TC firms should target a narrow segment of the mark

36、et that provides the best opportunity for success. In textiles, the focus should be on a few specialized segments such as carpets, nonwovens and technical textiles. Similarly, apparel producers should increase their focu

37、s on core products, reduce vertical integration to shed overhead costs, and establish alliances with other firms to consolidate resources and increase market share.</p><p>　　Finally, in view of rising income

38、s and high growth rates in many developing countries such as China, Brazil, and India, there are potential export market opportunities for US textile and apparel products. US export interests may be served by seeking imp

39、roved access to the retail distribution systems of developing countries. US textile firms should also be able to use Mexico to export to the European Union and other countries, taking advantage of the Mexico-EU trade agr

40、eement. Since the conclusio</p><p>　　This paper suggests a demand pull model as a basis for developing a network structure in the clothing industry. In a demand pull model, consumer demand is the driver of s

41、ales unlike the supply push model whereby the manufacturer pushes goods to the retailer regardless of consumer demand.</p><p>　　Retail companies have become powerful due to their sufficient capital and marke

42、ting expertise to build loyalty among consumers. They are the lead firm in view of their central role in the organizational network. The lead clothing retailer integrates industrial capabilities such as sourcing of texti

43、les, design, product branding and its relations with consumers enables it to keep abreast of fashion consumption trends.</p><p>　　The lead firm conveys its requirements to these changing trends (changes in s

44、tyle, material requirements) to its suppliers or subcontractors (Table 7). It also provides assistance with the purchasing of capital equipment and technology necessary to produce apparel in accordance with market demand

45、. The fragmented webs of suppliers and subcontractors are bound together through information technology, online data sharing, joint product development, and collaborative forecasting, planning and replen</p><p

46、>　　The lion’s share of the benefits from quota elimination is expected to accrue to China. Its low labor cost, high productivity, range and flexibility of services as well as efficient supplier networks will make Chin

47、a the supplier of choice. About 87% of apparel executives that participated in a cotton sourcing summit in Miami in February 2004, agreed that China will soon account for 50–90% of all apparel sold in the US market (Nati

48、onal Labor Committee, 2004). This means rationalization of product</p><p>　　Exporters from Latin America, Africa and the Caribbean are likely to lose market share to China since they largely compete on price

49、 (not quality) and lack the capability to produce high value added products. Even with the introduction of safeguards on a range of products that are of export interest to these countries, their US market share has decli

50、ned since the phase out of quotas. With the complete removal of quotas in 2008, it is difficult for these countries to compete on price. Since the US</p><p>　　What are the implications for TC firms in countr

51、ies that are vulnerable to competition from China? First, they should capitalize on their proximity to the US market. Their ability to offer lower transport cost, lower lead times as well as duty free entry to the US mar

52、ket may attract the fashion-oriented segment of the US industry. This will depend on access to good local transport infrastructure to get goods to market as well as advanced telecommunications systems to link suppliers a

53、nd customers</p><p>　　Secondly, low wages do not necessarily provide a comparative advantage with respect to China. Firms should develop new capabilities in areas in which China does not have a comparative a

54、dvantage (yarn, and silk non-apparel). This requires, inter alia, investment in modern production methods and development of competitive sources of local raw materials. Even in product areas in which China is expanding i

55、ts exports, developing country suppliers that enhance their skills, technology, supply chains a</p><p>　　Thirdly, an important strategic consideration that limits the competitive impact of China is the need

56、on the part of multinationals to diversify their risk portfolios. US manufacturers and retailers are likely to adopt a diversified risk adjusted sourcing strategy that balances cost, speed to market as well as political

57、and economic stability. They may not be prepared to rely on China for critical inputs beyond a certain threshold of risk. Furthermore, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean c</p><p>　　Finally, existing U

58、S rules of origin requirements to qualify for free access to the US market have had unintended consequences. One of the requirements is that they have to use US yarn and fabric. This has had the effect of making their ex

59、ports less competitive. The US may have to modify its rules of origin to allow developing countries to import from Asia or other competitive sources without losing their preferential status.</p><p>　　美國(guó)紡織品和服

60、裝產(chǎn)業(yè)的貿(mào)易自由化和戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整模式</p><p><b>　　貝蕾·塞尤姆</b></p><p><b>　　美國(guó)</b></p><p>　　國(guó)際商務(wù)評(píng)論，第16期,2007年</p><p><b>　　貝蕾·塞尤姆</b></p>&l

61、t;p>　　諾娃東南大學(xué)，學(xué)院大道3301，勞德代爾堡，佛羅里達(dá)33314，美國(guó)</p><p>　　2005年12月2日收到稿件；分別于2006年4月17日、2006年10月11日和2006年11月23日收到修改稿件；2006年12月13日正式錄用</p><p>　　美國(guó)紡織品和服裝行業(yè)面臨的是一個(gè)市場(chǎng)條件快速變化、科技不斷創(chuàng)新的環(huán)境。隨著配額的取消和越來(lái)越多貿(mào)易協(xié)議的出現(xiàn)，美國(guó)

62、的紡織品和服裝行業(yè)在出口和國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)上面臨著更為激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。這可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)的企業(yè)/勞動(dòng)者向本國(guó)政府施加壓力要求進(jìn)行需求的干預(yù)，通過(guò)這種做法來(lái)緩和貿(mào)易自由化帶來(lái)的不利影響。（斯坦德貝瑞和維丁克思，2004）</p><p>　　盡管美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)紡織行業(yè)的就業(yè)人數(shù)大量減少，美國(guó)紡織品和服裝行業(yè)依然保持著技術(shù)性的進(jìn)步，主要是依靠在技術(shù)上和設(shè)計(jì)上的能力取得的進(jìn)步使得生產(chǎn)率大幅度的提高。紡織品產(chǎn)品是資本密集型的，這種高質(zhì)量產(chǎn)品

63、需要現(xiàn)代的技術(shù)來(lái)滿足增長(zhǎng)的需求。在過(guò)去的若干年中，美國(guó)的紡織品和服裝企業(yè)為了達(dá)到市場(chǎng)鄰近的內(nèi)在優(yōu)勢(shì)的最大化增加了相當(dāng)大的投資，來(lái)保持現(xiàn)代生產(chǎn)的能力和改善生產(chǎn)和營(yíng)銷的能力。在服裝方面，低技術(shù)含量的生產(chǎn)工作已經(jīng)被轉(zhuǎn)移到低成本的國(guó)家，而高技術(shù)含量的生產(chǎn)工作仍然在本國(guó)進(jìn)行。為了能順利地適應(yīng)新的環(huán)境，美國(guó)紡織品和服裝行業(yè)需要將他們的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)變成資本。他們需要建立起一套更靈活的操作系統(tǒng)來(lái)滿足生產(chǎn)創(chuàng)新的高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，另外還要建立起更容易變化—尋找的商業(yè)文化

64、。（克里度夫，2005）</p><p>　　美國(guó)紡織品和服裝企業(yè)的一個(gè)重要生存手段就是通過(guò)提供新產(chǎn)品的設(shè)計(jì)和產(chǎn)品目錄來(lái)擴(kuò)大他們潛在的市場(chǎng)。生產(chǎn)者必須試著將一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的產(chǎn)品系列引入到與消費(fèi)者的口味和偏好相一致的市場(chǎng)中去。他們同樣能通過(guò)提供新的產(chǎn)品目錄來(lái)擴(kuò)大他們的潛在市場(chǎng)。比如，在美國(guó)增長(zhǎng)最快的兩個(gè)服裝部門(mén)是女式的加大服裝部門(mén)和男式的大而高的服裝部門(mén)。（迪瑞斯科，2004）加大型服裝銷售在2005年估計(jì)達(dá)到470億美

65、元，占整個(gè)服裝市場(chǎng)的20%。重要的一點(diǎn)是識(shí)別企業(yè)的目標(biāo)顧客和評(píng)定企業(yè)是否能成功的滿足他們的需求。</p><p>　　美國(guó)的紡織品和服裝企業(yè)應(yīng)該以一個(gè)狹小的提供最好的成功機(jī)會(huì)的市場(chǎng)部門(mén)作為目標(biāo)。在紡織品方面，重點(diǎn)應(yīng)該放在一些諸如地毯，非紡織而成的紡織品和技術(shù)類的紡織品上。同樣，服裝生產(chǎn)者應(yīng)該將他們的注意力更多的集中在核心產(chǎn)品上，將垂直生產(chǎn)費(fèi)用減少到企業(yè)的管理費(fèi)用，和其他的企業(yè)建立聯(lián)盟來(lái)鞏固資源和增加市場(chǎng)的份額。&

66、lt;/p><p>　　最后，鑒于諸如中國(guó)、巴西和印度這樣的發(fā)展中國(guó)家收入的增加和高增長(zhǎng)率，對(duì)于美國(guó)紡織品和服裝產(chǎn)品有許多潛在的出口市場(chǎng)機(jī)會(huì)。通過(guò)尋找已經(jīng)改善的發(fā)展中國(guó)家的零售系統(tǒng)令美國(guó)獲得出口利益。美國(guó)紡織品企業(yè)同樣能夠利用墨西哥和歐盟之間的貿(mào)易協(xié)定，通過(guò)墨西哥將產(chǎn)品出口到歐盟和其他的國(guó)家。由于北美自由貿(mào)易區(qū)協(xié)定的存在，為了能出口到美國(guó)市場(chǎng)，許多亞洲和歐洲企業(yè)已經(jīng)在墨西哥生產(chǎn)某些產(chǎn)品。</p><

67、;p>　　本文建立了一個(gè)需求推動(dòng)模型，將其作為發(fā)展服裝紡織行業(yè)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)框架的基礎(chǔ)。在這個(gè)需求推動(dòng)的模型中，消費(fèi)者的需求是銷售的推動(dòng)力，這個(gè)模型不同于供給推動(dòng)模型，在那個(gè)模型中生產(chǎn)者不考慮消費(fèi)者的需求而將產(chǎn)品提供給零售商。</p><p>　　零售公司實(shí)力雄厚是由于他們有足夠的資金和市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷知識(shí)在客戶間樹(shù)立起信譽(yù)度。由于在整個(gè)組織框架中他們處于中心地位，所以他們是領(lǐng)導(dǎo)性的企業(yè)。這些領(lǐng)頭的服裝零售商具備整合諸如紡

68、織品來(lái)源、設(shè)計(jì)、產(chǎn)品的品牌和客戶之間的聯(lián)系等產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的能力，使得他們能夠始終跟隨著時(shí)尚消費(fèi)的趨勢(shì)。</p><p>　　領(lǐng)導(dǎo)性的企業(yè)將它們的需求傳遞到這些不斷變化的趨勢(shì)中（造型、原材料需求上的變化），傳遞到它們的供應(yīng)商或者轉(zhuǎn)包合同商那里。（圖7）。它同樣提供資金設(shè)備的銷售和技術(shù)，這些都是使服裝生產(chǎn)滿足市場(chǎng)需求所必需的。通過(guò)信息技術(shù)、在線數(shù)據(jù)的共享、共同產(chǎn)品的發(fā)展，合作性的預(yù)測(cè)、計(jì)劃和補(bǔ)貨活動(dòng)，各種供應(yīng)商和轉(zhuǎn)包合同

69、商總是聯(lián)系在一起。當(dāng)運(yùn)輸變的越來(lái)越小型化、越來(lái)越頻繁的時(shí)候，當(dāng)銷售的數(shù)據(jù)直接傳送到生產(chǎn)和負(fù)責(zé)運(yùn)輸?shù)姆b生產(chǎn)商和供應(yīng)商那里的時(shí)候，零售商將保留少量的庫(kù)存。這個(gè)模型解釋了零售商的作用，它是作為一個(gè)中間人，起到綜合設(shè)計(jì)、紡織品來(lái)源、品牌的功能，而且通過(guò)一系列的供應(yīng)商/轉(zhuǎn)包合同商來(lái)作為服裝生產(chǎn)的便利者。通過(guò)技術(shù)改進(jìn)和信息技術(shù)進(jìn)行的這些重新構(gòu)建在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)越來(lái)越激烈的環(huán)境中是一種不斷前進(jìn)的方式。水平的構(gòu)建，大量的生產(chǎn)方法不再確保未來(lái)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性。</

70、p><p>　　配額取消所帶來(lái)的市場(chǎng)份額的大幅度增長(zhǎng)被認(rèn)為是有利于中國(guó)的發(fā)展的。中國(guó)低廉的勞動(dòng)力成本，高的生產(chǎn)效率和產(chǎn)量，靈活多變的服務(wù)和有效的供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)將使得中國(guó)成為供應(yīng)商的選擇。在參加2004年2月于邁阿密舉行的棉花來(lái)源會(huì)議的服裝執(zhí)行官中，大約有87%的人認(rèn)為中國(guó)在不久以后將占有美國(guó)市場(chǎng)所有銷售服裝的50%—90%的份額（國(guó)家勞動(dòng)委員會(huì)，2004年）。這意味著中國(guó)生產(chǎn)的合理性和擁有大量穩(wěn)定的買(mǎi)主。在紡織品和服裝行業(yè)

71、的狹窄部門(mén)中，其他受益的國(guó)家可能包括印度和巴基斯坦。配額的取消同樣可能帶給消費(fèi)者低價(jià)，這是由于配額成本的消失，在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)上配額的成本是紡織品和服裝銷售成本中的一個(gè)重要組成部分。知名的品牌仍然保持著市場(chǎng)的價(jià)值因?yàn)樗鼈儾粫?huì)受到零售價(jià)格縮水的影響。為了建立一個(gè)后配額時(shí)代的實(shí)施計(jì)劃，估計(jì)紡織品和服裝企業(yè)的內(nèi)在能力諸如產(chǎn)品的來(lái)源，生產(chǎn)，后勤，運(yùn)輸?shù)葘?duì)于他們來(lái)說(shuō)是很重要。</p><p>　　來(lái)自拉丁美洲、非洲和加勒比海的出

72、口商可能會(huì)將失去的市場(chǎng)份額白白讓給中國(guó)，因?yàn)樗麄冎饕窃趦r(jià)格上展開(kāi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)（而不是在質(zhì)量上），沒(méi)有能力去生產(chǎn)高附加值的產(chǎn)品。即使一定的貿(mào)易保護(hù)對(duì)這些國(guó)家的部分產(chǎn)品出口有利，但是自從配額取消以來(lái)他們?cè)诿绹?guó)市場(chǎng)的份額是下降的。隨著2008年配額的完全取消，這些國(guó)家很難在價(jià)格上進(jìn)行競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。舉個(gè)例子，美國(guó)政府在2002年解除了對(duì)29類商品的配額限制，中國(guó)在美國(guó)的市場(chǎng)份額從原來(lái)區(qū)區(qū)的9%（2002年）一下子躍升到65%（2003年），而美國(guó)零售商（從中

73、國(guó)購(gòu)買(mǎi)服裝的）價(jià)格下降了48%（國(guó)家勞動(dòng)委員會(huì)，2004年）。在棉制睡衣方面（配額的取消），中國(guó)占美國(guó)的市場(chǎng)份額在2003年從25%上升到39%，而加勒比海國(guó)家的棉制睡衣在美國(guó)的市場(chǎng)份額從13%下降到只有僅僅的3%。在配額取消的前12個(gè)月，中國(guó)服裝在美國(guó)的市場(chǎng)份額價(jià)值上上升了59%，而許多中美和南美國(guó)家卻是出現(xiàn)明顯下降的趨勢(shì)。</p><p>　　對(duì)于那些面臨中國(guó)激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，他們應(yīng)該怎么辦呢？首先，他們應(yīng)

74、該充分利用與美國(guó)在地理?xiàng)l件上鄰近的這種優(yōu)勢(shì)。這些國(guó)家能夠提供比較低的運(yùn)輸成本，比較短的交貨時(shí)間和享受出口美國(guó)市場(chǎng)關(guān)稅豁免的優(yōu)惠政策，這些都將吸引美國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)中那些以時(shí)尚為導(dǎo)向的部門(mén)。這將依賴于當(dāng)?shù)馗玫牡倪\(yùn)輸基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)的獲取，這些基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)能將好的產(chǎn)品送到更好的市場(chǎng)上，同時(shí)依賴于更先進(jìn)通信系統(tǒng)的獲得，它們用來(lái)連接供應(yīng)商和客戶。當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)和政府需要在創(chuàng)造性的環(huán)境下進(jìn)行合作，這個(gè)環(huán)境是通過(guò)促進(jìn)商務(wù)和發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)來(lái)吸引和保持紡織品和服裝行業(yè)的，因?yàn)榧徔?/p>

75、品和服裝行業(yè)在創(chuàng)造出口和就業(yè)方面的作用很大。</p><p>　　其次，低工資并不意味著中國(guó)有相對(duì)的比較優(yōu)勢(shì)。企業(yè)應(yīng)該在中國(guó)沒(méi)有比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的那些領(lǐng)域（紗線、絲、非紡織類方面）挖掘出他們的新潛能。這需要在現(xiàn)代生產(chǎn)方法上進(jìn)行其他項(xiàng)目的投資，需要在當(dāng)?shù)卦牧蟻?lái)源的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性上進(jìn)行發(fā)展。甚至在中國(guó)正在擴(kuò)大出口的那些產(chǎn)品的領(lǐng)域上，發(fā)展中國(guó)家的供應(yīng)商也可以比中國(guó)更快地提高他們生產(chǎn)的技能、技術(shù)水平、供應(yīng)鏈和市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷的能力（通過(guò)合資、

76、許可證授權(quán)），來(lái)保持他們?cè)诿绹?guó)市場(chǎng)上的份額。</p><p>　　第三，限制中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)作用的一個(gè)重要的戰(zhàn)略考慮就是擴(kuò)大對(duì)多個(gè)國(guó)家的需要來(lái)分散他們的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比重。美國(guó)的生產(chǎn)者和零售商可能會(huì)采取一種分散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的調(diào)整來(lái)源國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略來(lái)平衡成本，加速市場(chǎng)、政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)上的穩(wěn)定性。他們不會(huì)單單依賴中國(guó)提供主要的進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品，因?yàn)檫@樣會(huì)超出一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)界限。再者，墨西哥、中美洲和加勒比海國(guó)家在一些時(shí)尚的部門(mén)上對(duì)美國(guó)的公司有著吸引，這些部門(mén)對(duì)時(shí)尚